Our baseball experts are all over the 15-game Saturday slate with three MLB best bets, which feature picks and props for Nationals vs Marlins, Royals vs Guardians and Rangers vs Mariners.
Among their MLB best bets and predictions for Saturday are two pitcher props — for Luis L. Ortiz and Bryan Woo — plus a first five innings bet on the total.
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MLB Best Bets, Saturday Props, Picks, Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”Seattle Mariners” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png”][/teammatchup] | 9:40 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:10 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Galaida’s Nationals vs Marlins Best Bet: First Five Total”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”First Five Innings (F5) Under 4 (-115)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” awayname=”Washington Nationals” awayslug=”washington-nationals” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” homename=”Miami Marlins” homeslug=”miami-marlins” date=”Saturday, April 12″ time=”4:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
By Nick Galaida
Nationals right-hander Trevor Williams owns a 2.47 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP since he went to Driveline and revamped his pitch mix.
Sandy Alcantara enters play with a 3.72 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 0.93 WHIP in 2025.
Washington’s offense has been slightly better than league average against right-handed pitchers this season, but Miami’s offense ranks 24th in wRC+.
Runs should be tough to come by early in this contest, assuming we don’t have any defensive shenanigans causing trouble.
Pick: First Five Innings (F5) Under 4 (-115)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”Seattle Mariners” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Royals vs Guardians Best Bet: Fade Luis Ortiz”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Luis L. Ortiz Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” awayname=”Kansas City Royals” awayslug=”kansas-city-royals” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” homename=”Cleveland Guardians” homeslug=”cleveland-guardians” date=”Saturday, April 12″ time=”6:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Charlie Wright
Ortiz has struggled mightily in his first two starts, allowing 10 earned runs over 10 2/3 innings. He has an ugly 5:4 K:BB ratio.
This performance is an extension of his awful Spring Training, where he allowed 21 earned runs over 18 2/3 innings.
Ortiz’s slider is his only above-average whiff pitch, and he used it as his primary offering last season.
Ortiz has thrown his 4-seamer 7% more often than the slider so far this year. The fastball has allowed a silly .462 batting average.
It’s a tiny sample, but the pitch mix adjustment doesn’t seem ideal. The two home runs Ortiz has allowed have come on the slider, so nothing is really working right now.
Kansas City had the third-lowest strikeout rate against righties last season. The Royals have the 10th-lowest mark this year.
The Royals’ projected lineup has an 18.3% K% vs. right-handed pitchers since the start of 2024. That would’ve been second in the league last season.
Pick: Luis L. Ortiz Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”Seattle Mariners” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Doug Ziefel’s Rangers vs Mariners Best Bet: Bryan Woo”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Bryan Woo Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” awayname=”Texas Rangers” awayslug=”texas-rangers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” homename=”Seattle Mariners” homeslug=”seattle-mariners” date=”Saturday, April 12″ time=”9:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
By Doug Ziefel
Bryan Woo was quietly one of the better pitchers in baseball last season — he pitched to a 2.89 ERA and was excellent at generating soft contact.
Those trends have carried over to 2025 thus far.
Tonight, he faces a Rangers lineup that has been cold against right-handed pitching. Dating back to last season, over their last 30 games, the Rangers are 30th in batting average against righties and 26th in hard-hit rate.
Woo is the exact opposite matchup this Rangers lineup would want, as he had a hard-hit rate in the 94th percentile last year and a BABIP against in the 93rd percentile.
That consistent soft contact allowed him to stay under this hits total in 59% of his starts last season.
Seeing the Rangers and Woo are trending in opposite directions, don’t expect much traffic on the bases for Texas tonight.
Pick: Bryan Woo Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”Seattle Mariners” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png”][/teammatchup] |