Mets vs Nationals Prediction, Picks Thursday | MLB Odds Today (July 4)

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José Quintana is definitely one of the weaker pitchers in the New York Mets’ rotation. However, the Mets have been hammering the ball lately and also boast a potent bullpen with plenty of pitchers who throw gas.

Now, they’ll be facing Jake Irvin and the Washington Nationals. The significant news around the Nationals lately is the call-up of top prospect, James Wood. Regardless, Washington hasn’t hit lefties well of late.

That being said, let’s get to my Nationals vs. Mets pick and prediction.

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Quintana has a 4.57 ERA and a 5.28 xERA. He is walking about 8% of hitters and only striking out 18.1%. He is easily above average in terms of keeping the ball on the ground. That’s going to be crucial because his hard-hit rate ranks in the 12th percentile and he allows consistent contact. Over the past month, the Mets’ southpaw has been throwing well, striking out over 25% of batters. He also has a much lower average exit velocity and hard-hit rate during that span.

At the plate, the Mets have been raking. They have a 145 wRC+ (tied for the best in baseball with Baltimore) against righties over the past month and also own a walk rate above 10% and a strikeout rate below 19% during that time.

In relief, the Mets have been excellent of late. They have a 3.60 xFIP with a strikeout rate above 24% and a walk rate under 8.5% over the past month. Only Jake Diekman has a xFIP above 4.00 in that same timeframe, so the Mets have several options to put in the game, if Quintana struggles.

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Irvin is a ground-ball pitcher with a sub-4.00 xERA and ERA. He has been solid, but his ground-ball rate has only been slightly better than Quintana’s. He allows hard contact often and consistently. Additionally, the Mets have done a great job of lowering their ground-ball rate, so he will have a tough task here. His walk rate is far better than Quintana’s, but he’ll also be facing a tougher lineup in this matchup.

The Nationals added a spark to the lineup in Wood, but still have an 83 wRC+ off of lefties in the past month. They only walk 6.3% of the time and don’t strike out much (19.4%).

Washington’s bullpen has also been lights out. The Nationals have a xFIP of 3.40 in the past month with a 24.6% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. Like the Mets, they have several options in relief, but since New York is hitting so well lately, it may not matter as much.

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Although Irvin would usually be a sure bet against Quintana, the Mets’ starter has pitched well in the past month and has looked like his old self. As a result, the starting pitching matchup looks like a wash, or potentially an edge to Quintana and the Mets. Both bullpens are strong, but the Mets hold a massive advantage at the dish. Look for some fireworks in this matchup and expect New York to keep mashing. Bet the Mets to -130.

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