My strikeout prop pick for Thursday night is Merrill Kelly to go UNDER 4.5 strikeouts — find my analysis and scouting report for this prop bet below.
Merrill Kelly Player Props: Strikeout Pick vs. Yankees
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Merrill Kelly struck out just one batter over 5/13 innings in his season debut. It wasn’t quite as ugly as the box score suggests — my model had him at 4.1 expected strikeouts — so there’s definitely room for improvement. But this isn’t Paul Skenes we’re talking about, and even his expected K% came in below my preseason projection.
Normally, this would look like a classic buy-low spot. Kelly’s not a huge strikeout guy to begin with, and the market may be overcorrecting after one game. But I’m seeing a few red flags that make me lean the other way.
The biggest concern? Edge% — Kelly threw just 34% of his pitches on the edge in his first start. That’s a problem, especially for a guy who relies on locating over raw stuff.
The Cubs were able to pick up on ball vs. strike immediately and didn’t chase — just a 20% chase rate, which would be the lowest of Kelly’s career over a full season.
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He’ll likely find his rhythm eventually and do a better job getting hitters to expand the zone. But this Yankees lineup is not the place to find it:
- Lowest chase rate in the league
- Low first-pitch swing rate
- Kelly already struggled in both areas in his debut, and if he’s behind in counts again tonight, that could be a problem.
There’s also a platoon split working against him. Kelly has struck out righties 5% more often over his career (and +18% last year!). The Yankees are expected to feature six left-handed bats, which could suppress Kelly’s strikeout upside even more.
Throw in a fresh D-backs bullpen and an off day Monday, and there’s a realistic path for Kelly to get pulled a bit early, especially if the Yankees string together some early runs.
All things considered, I’m projecting his fair price closer to -140 on the under. At -110, there’s value here.
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