The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 9, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Dodgers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
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- Dodgers vs Padres picks: Under 8.5 (-114) | Play to -120
My Dodgers vs Padres best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Dodgers vs Padres Odds
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Dodgers vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dustin May (LAD) | Stat | RHP Nick Pivetta (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 4.09/4.46 | ERA /xERA | 3.16/3.49 |
| 4.02/3.62 | FIP / xFIP | 3.05/3.49 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.02 |
| 15.8% | K-BB% | 21.0% |
| 48.8% | GB% | 33.1% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 100 | Location+ | 113 |
Kenny Ducey’s Dodgers vs Padres Preview
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It’s been an up-and-down season for Dustin May, but the talented righty has finally started to look like his previous self after working his way back from a major injury.
The righty has now struck out 30 batters over his last four outings — spanning 22 innings — and while he’s continued to show the warts he did earlier in the year, missing bats is always the best medicine.
With his walk rate still sitting at a middling 8.5% and continued issues getting hitters out on contact, the return to glory in the strikeout department is a welcome sight.
May is still wearing a .444 Expected Slugging, which would be the highest of his career by a great degree, and he’s allowed eight homers in his last eight starts.
This is not what you want to see out of a pitcher who’s primarily geared towards rolling up ground balls, nor are the walks, but May will continue working towards realizing his potential as a front-end starter.
If he remains this way for the remainder of the season, he’ll simply be a reliable, yet unspectacular, back-end arm.
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If you want spectacular, you might want to get familiar with Nick Pivetta. The righty has never gotten the respect he truly deserves due to his erratic nature, but this is a player who’s held a strikeout rate over 28% for the past three seasons, next to pretty stellar walk rates.
That K-BB ratio is one we hunt down so often, and the only drawback to Pivetta is his inability to keep the ball in the yard. His barrel rate is around 11% in the past three years as well, with an xSLG firmly higher than the league average.
It’s no surprise that entering the season, he had allowed almost 26 homers per year on average since the COVID-shortened campaign.
He’s allowed seven homers so far this year — an issue that’s only grown more troubling in the last month and change — but he’s at least been able to say he hasn’t allowed more than one in a start.
Still, as a heavy fly-ball arm with a repeatedly poor hard-hit rate, power will be his lone weakness. But with a wonderful K-BB ratio, he can often keep his outings under control.
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Dodgers’ offense has returned to form in the last two weeks, ranking third in wRC+ with a solid .190 Isolated Power and a low 21.2% strikeout rate. As the top team in OPS to fly-ball pitchers, they’d seem to match up quite well with Pivetta here.
That’s where the righty’s home park could come into play, however. The Dodgers hit just .145 at Petco Park last year with a .466 OPS, and the year prior they owned a .743 OPS next to a weak .230 average.
That’s well off their respective .781 and .794 marks in the OPS column in those seasons, and it’s a testament to how this park can sap power as it kills fly balls.
That should work out for both pitchers here. May likely doesn’t need much more help considering he’ll be pitching to a lineup that swings a ton and doesn’t possess much power — a ground-ball pitcher’s dream.
San Diego is hitting just .219 in the last 14 days, and I don’t see conditions improving here against May — who’s pounded the zone and should roll up plenty of groundouts here against a slumping group of bats.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-114)
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Moneyline
We’re tracking some sharp money hitting the Dodgers here, who come in as attractive, short road favorites. Their offense has been hotter, so it’s hard to blame them, but I’d be cautious about this team’s performance in San Diego.
Run Line (Spread)
The Dodgers have covered the run line just once in their past five games while the Padres are 20-10 to the run line at home and 6-4 in their last 10.
Over/Under
The over has cashed just twice in the Padres’ last 10 games and is 8-20-1 when San Diego is the underdog.
Dodgers vs Padres Betting Trends
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Dodgers vs Padres Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
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