NL West rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers (82-54) and Arizona Diamondbacks (76-60), play the third game of their four-game series on Sunday afternoon at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Roku.
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks played yet another wild game on Saturday night as the contest featured back-to-back-to-back home runs — courtesy of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman — plus an inside-the-park homer by Corbin Carroll. The Dodgers ultimately triumphed late and lead the series 2-0 heading into Sunday, when Justin Wrobleski takes on Brandon Pfaadt.
Can the Dodgers claim the series win on Sunday and further pad their NL West lead, or will the D-backs bite back? I preview Game 3 below and offer my best Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction and pick for Sunday, September 1.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Predictions” center=”true” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/los-angeles-dodgers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/arizona-diamondbacks” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]
- Dodgers-Diamondbacks picks: Over 9 (-115)
My Dodgers-Diamondbacks best bet is over 9 total runs , where I see value at a line of -115. The best line is available at BetMGM and FanDuel — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Odds
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” awayname=”Dodgers” awayslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” homename=”Diamondbacks” homeslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” date=”Sunday, Sept. 1″ time=”4:10 p.m. ET” network=”Roku” col1text=”Moneyline” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Run Line” col1awaytext=”-105″ col1hometext=”-115″ col2awaytext=”9.5″ col2hometext=”9.5″ col2awayline=”+110o / -130u” col2homeline=”+110o / -130u” col3awaytext=”-1.5″ col3hometext=”+1.5″ col3awayline=”+150″ col3homeline=”-180″ bookname=”ESPN Bet” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/ESPNBET-square1-e1700602012366.png” bookreviewslug=”espn-bet”][/gamematchup]
- Dodgers-D-backs Moneyline: Dodgers -105 | D-backs -115
- Dodgers-Diamondbacks Over/Under: 9.5 total runs (+110o / -130u)
- Dodgers-Dbacks Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+150) | Dbacks +1.5 (-180)
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks Probable Starters
| LHP Justin Wrobleski (LAD) | Stat | RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 8-7 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 4.89 / 5.83 | ERA /xERA | 4.31 / 3.53 |
| 6.45 / 5.07 | FIP / xFIP | 3.57 / 3.70 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 9% | K-BB% | 17.7% |
| 26.4% | GB% | 42.3% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 97 | Location+ | 106 |
Sean Paul’s Dodgers vs D-backs Preview & Prediction
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Pfaadt Struggling; Carroll Surging” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/arizona-diamondbacks” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
If the Diamondbacks want a chance at dethroning the Dodgers in the NL West, then it begins with actually beating the Dodgers.
In order for the D-backs to cut their deficit in the division, it begins with getting a strong start on the mound — something Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have failed to provide in the first two games of this series. The Snakes turn to right-hander Brandon Pfaadt on Sunday.
Pfaadt has really struggled over the last month, pitching to a 5.23 ERA in his last seven outings. He’s allowed 44 hits in 41 1/3 innings but has maintained a strong K/9 rate.
Although Pfaadt has been off, it appears some positive regression awaits. He boasts a sub-4 FIP and xERA in his last seven starts despite posting a 6.29 ERA. If you’re looking for a reason to believe in Pfaadt as a future stalwart of Arizona’s rotation, look no further than his terrific 108 Stuff+ metric. He doesn’t throw high 90’s, but Pfaadt has really, really nasty stuff when he’s right.
The only area Pfaadt is elite at is limiting walks — he ranks in the 92nd percentile in BB%. However, a concerning part of Pfaadt’s profile is how hard opponents hit him — he ranks in the 44th percentile in average exit velocity, 45th percentile in xBA and 46th percentile in hard-hit rate.
The Diamondbacks’ offensive surge isn’t just a one-month phenomenon. They’ve been the best offense in MLB dating back to July, posting a jaw-dropping 132 wRC+. In second place is the Yankees (124 wRC+).
You can point to Corbin Carroll’s resurgence as a key reason for the D-backs’ offensive success. Last year’s Rookie of the Year winner, Carroll, clocked has 11 homers in his last 30 games. Prior to the past month, Carroll had just seven homers.
You can point some of Carroll’s struggles to the league figuring him out, but I’d guess the nagging shoulder injury sustained last season played a large role in his power disappearing. The toolsy outfielder is back to hitting hard line drives like he did during the Diamondbacks’ miracle run to the N.L. Pennant last season.
Closing the page on last month, Carroll posted a 160 wRC+ and homered off Clayton Kershaw. That may not be the same feat it was a few years ago, but it’s still impressive nonetheless.
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[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Dodgers Betting Preview: Wrobleski Not Ready for The Show?” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/los-angeles-dodgers” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
The Dodgers are bringing left-hander Justin Wrobleski back to the big-league rotation in a spot-start capacity due to injuries piling up.
In five major-league starts, Wrobleski has had a rough go of it, posting a 4.68 ERA with a very concerning 5.83 xERA and 6.45 FIP. I haven’t seen a ton of promise from Wrobleski beyond regularly pumping 94-97 mph with his four-seam fastball.
I’ll be honest, I expected the Dodgers offense to be the best in MLB in the past week or so considering they are back to full strength. I went back on FanGraphs and found the Dodgers offense has ranked 19th in wRC+ since August 24. That feels quite stunning, but the numbers look more appetizing if you go back further to August 19, when Max Muncy first returned — ranking seventh in wRC+.
Needless to say, I have the utmost confidence in an offense featuring Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez occupying the 1-4 spots in the order. After that, it’s a question of whether Gavin Lux and Max Muncy can continue hitting consistently. Finding a weak point in the sport’s most gifted offensive outfit is tough.
How can the Dodgers offense right the ship? That’s a great question.
It’s simple — getting back to the basics and work counts again. They posted a 7.4 BB% in August, down from 10.8% in July. That’s a stark contrast in just one calendar month, coinciding with their noticeably rough offensive stretch.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
The over feels like an obvious play here. Pfaadt is a better pitcher than his numbers indicate, but his recent struggles, paired with Wrobleski looking dicey, could lead to another slugfest in the desert.
Pick: Over 9 (Bet to Over 9.5)
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Moneyline
If I had to pick a side, I’d go with the Diamondbacks staying hot against Wrobleski, who’s the clear worse pitcher in this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
No play here for me. The first two games featured All-Star Game level slugfests with elite offensive action on both sides. I think that’ll continue.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]
- 50% of the bets and 76% of the money are on the Dodgers on the moneyline.
- 82% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the over.
- 75% of the bets and 87% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line.
Dodgers Betting Trends
- Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Dodgers are 30-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 39 of Dodgers’ 68 last games at home
Diamondbacks Betting Trends
- Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Diamondbacks are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Diamondbacks are 37-31 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Diamondbacks’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 41 of Diamondbacks’ 67 last games at home
Dodgers at Diamondbacks Weather Forecast for Sunday
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”231894″ date=”2024-09-01″][/gameforecast]
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