Angels vs Padres Prediction, F5 Pick, Odds

The San Diego Padres (26-15) host the Los Angeles Angels (17-24) on Wednesday, May 14, 2025. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSW and MLB.TV.

Fernando Tatis Jr. sent the Padres home happy with a 6-4 win on Tuesday night following his first career walk-off home run. Tonight’s matchup will see Kyle Hendricks on the mound for the Angels against Randy Vasquez of the Padres.

Find my Angels vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.

[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-14-at-3.21.46-PM.png” buttontext=”Instantly Add F5 Over to Bet Slip!” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1563519710&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Angels vs Padres Prediction, F5 Pick” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/los-angeles-angels” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/san-diego-padres” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]

• Angels vs Padres Pick: F5 Over 4.5

My Padres vs. Angels best bet is for both teams to go over the total in the first five innings (F5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

[expertpickswidget league=”mlb” gameid=”253778″ date=”20250514″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

Angels vs Padres Odds, Spread, Over/Under

[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” awayname=”Angels” awayslug=”los-angeles-angels” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” homename=”Padres” homeslug=”san-diego-padres” date=”Wednesday, May 14″ time=”9:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-130″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+110″ col2awaytext=”8.5″ col2hometext=”8.5″ col2awayline=”-125o / +105u” col2homeline=”-125o / +105u” col3awaytext=”+158″ col3hometext=”-190″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/668039_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gamematchup]

• Angels vs Padres Moneyline: Angels +158, Padres -190
• Angels vs Padres Total: 8.5 (-125o / +105u)
• Angels vs Padres Run Line: Angels +1.5 (-130), Padres -1.5 (+110)

_InlineAdBlock

Angels vs Padres Preview, Prediction

[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Angels Betting Preview: Bats Coming to Life?” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/los-angeles-angels” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

The Angels’ offensive matchup against Randy Vasquez — who’s due for significant regression — is decent. We’ll dive more into Vasquez in a bit, but there’s a lot to like about the matchup.

Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe, Taylor Ward and Jo Adell have xSLGs above .420, so they can hang a crooked number with a solid matchup tonight.

The Angels’ lineup doesn’t look as ferocious with Mike Trout out, but there’s still a lot to like about the top of the order, including the red-hot Neto at shortstop.

On the mound, Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for the Halos tonight. In typical Hendricks fashion, he continues to be a contact-friendly arm.

Hendricks’ 14% K rate and 16% whiff rate are among the lowest of all MLB starting pitchers. He’s also averaging just 86 mph on his fastball, which has been a common trend over the last couple of seasons.

Considering all this, Hendricks has a terrible matchup tonight. Not only does he struggle to generate missed bats with his arsenal, but the Padres are the toughest team to strike out in baseball.

Hendricks’ walk rate is also elevated from years past, so his 5.30 ERA isn’t much higher than his xERA of 4.61. It’s hard to sell me on the Halos because of who’s on the mound tonight, but their bats should come to life.

[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/64384_MLBArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for MLB bettors” firstupsell=”The best MLB betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/8e1fee7″][/appcard]

[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Padres Betting Preview: Plus Matchup at the Plate” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/san-diego-padres” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]

Vasquez enters tonight’s start with 38 1/3 innings pitched with only 18 strikeouts. His 3.76 ERA is 2.2 points lower than his xERA of 5.97.

I like to target pitchers due for significant regression, and Vasquez is one of them. He has done a solid job of limiting hard contact thus far, but he doesn’t miss nearly enough bats to be effective in the long run.

Considering this, the Padres offense must step up tonight. Luckily, they have an excellent matchup against Hendricks. They’re batting .242 against him as a team, but a couple of key hitters have crushed him in the past.

Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado have excellent numbers against Hendricks, so seeing them shine wouldn’t be surprising.

Hendricks thrives on changing speeds and creating weak contact, but it’s not a good recipe for success against an excellent offensive club.

If San Diego puts the ball in play, it’ll be set up for a strong night at the plate.

This moneyline price is outrageous with Vasquez on the mound, but it’s safe to say the Padres should score plenty of runs tonight.

Angels vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis

This is an excellent spot to take an over in the first five innings. I’m solely targeting Hendricks and Vasquez here while eliminating bullpen variance.

Both offenses have key advantages, and they should benefit from the ugly pitching matchup. The market still underrates the Angels offense, so I contemplated taking an F5 moneyline.

However, I’ll stick with the F5 over, which I find to be the best bet in the matchup.

Pick: F5 Over 4.5

_InlineAdBlock

Moneyline

While I don’t have a bet on the full-game moneyline, I lean toward the Angels ML in the first five innings.

Run Line (Spread)

I’m staying away from the run line in this game.

Over/Under

I don’t have a bet on the full-game total either, but my best bet for this game is for both teams to go over the F5 total. Both offenses are set up for success here against two pitchers who should continue to struggle.

Angels vs Padres Betting Trends

[bettingtrends title=”” gameid=”253778″ date=”20250514″][/bettingtrends]

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Angels vs Padres Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”253778″ date=”20250514″][/gameforecast]

[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/736824_ActionPRO_promo_1500x844.jpg” cta=”Premium picks, tools & analysis” firstupsell=”Track & follow smart money” secondupsell=”Biggest player prop edges” thirdupsell=”Real-time expert pick alerts” buttontext=”SAVE 66% NOW!” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]