Royals vs Astros Prediction, Pick, Odds for Monday, May 12

The Houston Astros host the Kansas City Royals on Monday, May 12, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSKC.

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Find my Royals vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.

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• Royals vs Astros pick: Under 8.5 (-122 | Play to -130)

My Royals vs Astros best bet is Under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Royals vs Astros Odds

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Tony Sartori’s Royals vs Astros Preview

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The Royals hand the ball to right-hander Michael Wacha on Monday, and he looks to build upon his dominant start to the season. Through eight starts, Wacha boasts a 2.98 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

His underlying metrics are equally strong, as the right-hander ranks in the top half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against the Astros, a team Wacha is 1-0 against with a spotless 0.00 ERA over the past two meetings.

The latest of those outings came a little over a month ago, a game in which Wacha tossed six scoreless innings en route to Kansas City’s 2-0 win. Another key factor in that low-scoring game was the Royals’ strong bullpen.

This season, Kansas City’s relief pitching ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).

However, the Royals’ lineup has failed to produce at the same level. Entering this matchup, Kansas City ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.

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Like Kansas City, Houston’s lineup has struggled, particularly in the power department. The Astros rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, slugging percentage and home runs.

The good news for Houston is that right-hander Ryan Gusto gets the start. Gusto has gotten off to a tremendous start to his rookie campaign.

Through nine appearances, Gusto is 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He also ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate and walk rate.

While the Royals boast a strong bullpen, Houston’s is even better. This season, the Astros’ relief staff ranks fourth in ERA, first in FIP, fourth in expected FIP (xFIP) and fourth in WAR.

Royals vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis

All the variables point toward the under in this matchup. Both starting pitchers have been excellent, and both bullpens have been reliable.

Meanwhile, both lineups rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game. Finally, there have been seven or fewer total runs scored in four of the past six meetings between these two teams.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-122 | Play to -130)

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Moneyline

I lean toward Houston, but don’t want to fade Wacha.

Run Line (Spread)

I also like Houston to cover, but I am staying away for the same reason listed above.

Over/Under

As mentioned, I’m betting Under 8.5.

Royals vs Astros Betting Trends

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