It’s a relatively busy Monday in baseball with 11 games on the slate. As always, I have MLB home run props and picks.
I have a bunch of home run picks today and they all center on the Padres vs Athletics game.
I believe books are badly mispricing home run props for games at Sutter Health Park, and I’m going to try to take advantage of that with five home run bets for Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-07-at-11.32.19%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”+100000 Home Run Parlay” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1450495003&deeplinkId[1]=ML1450494872&deeplinkId[2]=ML1450494359&deeplinkId[3]=ML1450487024&deeplinkId[4]=ML1450486976&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Note: While a parlay of these home run picks isn’t our formal recommendation, we’ve put together an easy way to parlay them below via BetMGM.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks for Monday
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 10:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”San Diego Padres” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” text=”Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run (+400)”][/teammatchup] |
| 10:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”San Diego Padres” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” text=”Manny Machado Home Run (+475)”][/teammatchup] |
| 10:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png” text=”Brent Rooker Home Run (+500)”][/teammatchup] |
| 10:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png” text=”Shea Langeliers Home Run (+525)”][/teammatchup] |
| 10:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png” text=”Tyler Soderstrom Home Run (+675)”][/teammatchup] |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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Home Run Picks for April 7
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+400; DraftKings)
Tatis gets a slightly below average matchup for HRs going up against Luis Severino, who allows a lot of power to lefties but has been average to righties over the last few years.
The ballpark and the odds are the main reason I’m taking Tatis today.
Sutter Health Park is playing as one of the best ballparks for power and the weather isn’t bad for this time of year, with temps near 70 degrees, decent humidity, and winds blowing out slightly.
I have the true odds here for Tatis around +350, making this a good EV bet.
Manny Machado (+475; BetMGM)
Everything I said about Tatis also works for Machado.
The matchup vs. Severino is just average for a righty, but the ballpark and the odds here are great.
Books aren’t pricing players right for this game and I have the true odds on Machado around +410.
Brent Rooker (+500; BetMGM)
Rooker is one of the best power bats in the league and even in a tough matchup today, he isn’t priced like it.
Michael King is one of the better pitchers at suppressing power vs. righties, but not nearly enough to justify this line.
I have the true odds on Rooker today below +400.
Shea Langeliers (+525; BetMGM)
The more I look at the odds on HRs this game, the more I realize how badly the books have priced a lot players — Langeliers is another example.
Langeliers may end up being a 40 HR hitter this season and the spot isn’t terrible.
King is a tough pitcher, but the ballpark makes up for it here.
I have the true odds on Langeliers at around +450.
Tyler Soderstrom (+675; BetMGM)
We don’t have a huge sample size for Soderstrom in the majors, but he grades out as an above-average power bat who should be hitting around 30 HRs a season.
He’s off to a great start this year with four home runs in 10 games. He isn’t in a terrible spot today going up against King, who allows close to average power to lefites.
I have the true odds on Soderstrom around +550.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-07-at-11.32.19%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”+100000 Home Run Parlay” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1450495003&deeplinkId[1]=ML1450494872&deeplinkId[2]=ML1450494359&deeplinkId[3]=ML1450487024&deeplinkId[4]=ML1450486976&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]