When betting MLB Tuesday, finding the best opportunities for MLB home run picks can make all the difference.
Our expert team running PRO Projections singled out some premier matchups today. Interestingly, AL East venues are emerging as ideal hot spots for home run bets. Specifically, the games between the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays — as well as the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox — stand out as prime environments for long balls.
Our PRO Projections combine proprietary data with betting odds to uncover betting edges, leveraging factors such as player projections, park factors and more.
Here are the four best home run hitters to bet on Tuesday, complete with payout odds ranging from +575 to +775. Let’s dive into the picks.
MLB Home Run Picks, Predictions and Projections
MLB Home Run Pick No. 1 for Mets vs. Blue Jays: Bet Pete Alonso
Our top pick today is none other than Pete Alonso of the New York Mets.
Alonso is projected to hit 0.26 home runs, giving him an 8.1% edge compared to the best betting odds of +575 available at BetMGM.
Playing at Rogers Centre, which ranks 11th among all parks this year for home run frequency, Alonso has a favorable setup to add another homer to his tally. His powerful swing coupled with an advantageous park factor makes him a compelling bet for today’s slate.
PRO Projections Edge: Pete Alonso HR (+575)
MLB Home Run Pick for Orioles vs. Red Sox: Bet Nick Maton
Recently called up, Nick Maton of the Baltimore Orioles presents an intriguing option.
Despite fewer games under his belt, our projections estimate Maton for 0.22 home runs at Fenway Park, which offers a significant 8.0% edge when stacked against odds of +750.
Fenway’s reputation as a hitter-friendly park only boosts his potential for sending one out of the park, making Maton a high-reward pick for today’s games.
PRO Props Edge: Nick Maton HR (+750)
MLB Home Run Pick No. 2 for Mets vs. Blue Jays: Bet Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a reliable performer for us, and he’s been particularly strong in the second half of the season.
Heading into today’s game, he’s projected for 0.22 home runs, giving him a 7.6% edge due to the odds of +725 available at BetMGM.
Guerrero’s recent hot streak and the favorable conditions at Rogers Centre make him an excellent candidate to go deep.
PRO Props Edge: Vlad Guerrero Jr. HR (+725)
MLB Home Run Pick No. 3 for Mets vs. Blue Jays: Bet JD Martinez
Wrapping up our picks is J.D. Martinez of the New York Mets.
Martinez is projected to hit 0.21 home runs against the Blue Jays, creating a 7.5% edge when compared to the best odds of +725 at BetMGM.
Similar to Alonso, the Rogers Centre’s homer-inducing atmosphere — combined with Martinez’s power-hitting capabilities — makes him a wise choice for home run picks.
PRO Props Edge: JD Martinez HR (+775)
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
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