It’s Big Fly Friday!
Why yes, I just made that up myself. How could you tell?
There are 15 games on Friday’s MLB schedule, providing plenty of opportunities to find savvy home run picks.
In fact, Action Network’s PRO MLB projections have already pinpointed three home run picks offering noteworthy edges heading into tonight’s slate.
Let’s dig in.
Home Run Picks, Bets from Advanced MLB Projections
*Odds and edges as of Friday morning
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) +475 to Hit Home Run
7:07 p.m. ET | Apple TV+
Guerrero has been a regular when it comes to Action PRO’s MLB prop projection edges and leads them once again on Friday.
Vlad is widely available at +475 for a round-tripper on Friday night, which translates to 7.9% edge based on our projection of 0.29 home runs.
Rafael Devers (Red Sox) +525 to Hit Home Run
7:10 p.m. ET | NESN
We have home run edges from today’s Yankees vs. Red Sox game, starting with Devers.
Boston’s third baseman is priced at +525 at BetMGM, resulting in a 6.1% edge when compared to our projection of 0.25 dingers.
Masataka Yoshida (Red Sox) +1050 to Hit Home Run
7:10 p.m. ET | NESN
We’re right back at Yankees vs. Red Sox (and BetMGM) for a massive long-shot pick.
Action PRO’s MLB model projects Yoshida at 0.16 home runs today against New York, which may not seem all that impressive.
However, it’s important to remember that odds and the potential payout matter here as well.
Because Yoshida’s home run prop is priced at +1050 at BetMGM, bettors can still lock in a 6.1% edge despite the low home run projection of 0.16.