If you were following our MLB home run picks, you might have cashed in on Gleyber Torres homering last night.
PRO Projections accurately predicted it, showcasing our experts’ superior ability to find betting edges in awesome markets. But as with every day in the world of MLB, we turn the page and focus on today’s best home run picks.
According to our latest insights, the matchups between the New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees offer solid value for bettors looking to wager on home run picks Friday.
We’ve identified a couple hitters for today’s games, factoring in key metrics like matchup statistics and park factors. Two players in particular stand out tonight, delivering attractive payouts at +550 and +775, respectively.
Transitioning from projections and analytical groundwork to practical bets, here are some of the best picks for today’s home run bets.
MLB Home Run Picks
Our PRO Projections system integrates a mix of proprietary player data, betting odds, and various other factors to uncover potential advantages.
Notably, the games involving today’s best bets will be held at Citizens Bank Park and Yankee Stadium, both of which are top five in baseball for home runs above average this season.
MLB Home Run Pick for Mets vs. Phillies: Bet Pete Alonso
Our top pick of the day is none other than Pete Alonso from the New York Mets.
Based on our expert analysis, Alonso’s chances of hitting a home run are substantial. Our projections forecast him to hit 0.29 home runs today, offering an 8.3% edge when stacked against the most favorable odds of +550 available at BetMGM.
Citizens Bank Park, where the Mets will be facing the Phillies, is ranked fifth in the league for home runs, which further bolsters Alonso’s case for going deep. Given his power-hitting ability and the favorable park conditions, Alonso presents a compelling case for bettors.
PRO Projections Edge: Pete Alonso HR (+550)
MLB Home Run Pick for Red Sox vs. Yankees: Bet Triston Casas
Next up, Triston Casas of the Boston Red Sox makes for an intriguing option.
Having recently been called back from injury, Casas is primed to make an impact. Our projections indicate a forecast of 0.23 home runs for Casas today, translating to a 5.9% betting edge. Despite playing at Yankee Stadium, our proprietary data points to an appealing set of odds at +775, making Casas an underrated but potentially lucrative pick for a park that boosts lefty power.
PRO Props Edge: Triston Casas HR (+775)
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
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