Home runs were hard to come by yesterday in the first day of the MLB postseason. However, today is a different story according to PRO Projections, our proprietary betting data.
Today marks the second day of the MLB playoffs and features wild card matchups, with a promising four-game slate on deck.
Within these games, three hitters stand out with notable chances to go deep.
By leveraging odds, player projections and other key metrics, PRO Projections identified undervalued hitters priced at +600, +1150 and +1250.
Let’s dive into today’s expert home run picks.
Home Run Picks, MLB HR Predictions for 10/2
PRO Projections unearthed value in today’s Royals vs. Orioles and Mets vs. Brewers games. All three of today’s home run picks are set above the recommended threshold of 3.5%.
Our data pinpoints three hitters who offer significant probabilities to hit a home run, translating into actionable home run predictions for your betting strategy Wednesday.
Home Run Pick No. 1 for Royals vs. Orioles: Bet Bobby Witt
It’s a pick on star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to park one at Camden Yards.
The best odds for a Witt home run are available at FanDuel, set at +600.
PRO Projections calculate his probability to homer at 0.30, translating into a 7.8% edge. For those keen on home run picks, Witt offers a compelling option for today’s action.
PRO Props Edge: Bobby Witt Jr. HR (+600)
Home Run Prediction No. 2 for Royals vs. Orioles: Bet Ryan O’Hearn
Ryan O’Hearn of the Orioles is another strong candidate in the same game, based on today’s data.
The best price for O’Hearn to go deep is +1150 at BetMGM. Our analysts project him with a 0.16 probability to hit a home run, and we believe fair odds should be closer to +600.
This discrepancy results in a 7.8% betting edge, positioning O’Hearn as a high-value pick for tonight’s action.
PRO Props Edge: Ryan O’Hearn HR (+1150)
Home Run Pick for Mets vs. Brewers: Bet Jose Iglesias
Here’s the top payout of the bunch.
The best price for Jose Iglesias to hit a home run tonight in Milwaukee is +1250 over at BetMGM.
These odds imply a 7% chance for Iglesias to go yard. However, our proprietary data projects Iglesias with a 15% likelihood to hit one out of the park, creating a substantial 8.2% edge. This edge makes Iglesias our top pick for today’s home run picks.
PRO Props Edge: Jose Iglesias HR (+1250)
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
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