As we gear up for a night packed with MLB action, it’s a perfect opportunity to explore several home run picks brimming with value by utilizing PRO Projections.
PRO Projections are our proprietary advanced betting models designed to identify the largest betting edges across various MLB player prop categories, including home runs. When our projected odds significantly differ from the market, it signals an opportunity for savvy bettors to capitalize on a potential misprice.
Tonight’s best MLB value bets are in the American League; both hitters also could see favorable matchups in their home park.
Also, Wednesday’s payouts for the two home run hitters are +650 and +680, respectively. Let’s analyze both, including where to get the best odds.
Home Run Picks | Best MLB Value Bets (July 3)
When it comes to the Yankees’ matchup against the Reds, New York’s Anthony Volpe’s odds to hit a home run are set at +650 at BetMGM – an attractive price if our numbers hold true.
PRO Projections calculated Volpe’s home run probability at 0.21, translating to a significant edge of 5.6% over the market odds.
At the time of writing, it’s the largest edge of any home run hitter for the July 3 slate.
One of the prime targets tonight is Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays.
Bichette has enticing odds of +680 to park a homer against the Astros tonight. PRO Projections have him projected at 0.21 home runs for this contest.
Despite the seemingly low projection on the surface, the gap between the sweet payout and our PRO Projections’ calculations creates a noticeable edge of 4.5% – the second-largest of any home run hitter tonight.
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.