Today’s slate of MLB games features an exciting focus on division rivalries, which is also the theme of today’s PRO Projections home run picks.
According to our team’s proprietary betting data, drawn from a thorough analysis of player projections, betting odds, and market trends, two matchups stand out for their home run potential: the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves and the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox.
Leveraging our expert projections, we dig deeper into the best home run hitters to bet on – or to fade – in these matchups. Our selections are based on a combination of factors including player performance, matchup specifics, park factors, and current prices. Using these criteria, our team identifies where the best betting edges lie, aiming to provide both value and accuracy.
Now, let’s transition into our top home run picks for and best bets for today’s games, supported by our MLB data.
Home Run Picks, Advanced MLB Projections Best Bets Thursday
The first game we turn our attention to is between the Phillies and Braves.
Truist Park in Atlanta ranks as the ninth-best venue for home runs in Major League Baseball, representing a fertile ground for sluggers.
Home Run Pick for Phillies vs. Braves: Bet Matt Olson
For today’s matchup, our focus is on Braves first baseman Matt Olson.
Our projections estimate Olson will hit approximately 0.29 home runs against the Phillies tonight, providing a 7.7% betting edge when compared to the best available odds of +560 on FanDuel. Considering Olson’s power and the favorable park factors, this projection signifies a valid betting option.
PRO Projections Edge: Matt Olson HR (+560)
Home Run Pick for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox: Bet Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Switching over to the American League East, we highlight the matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays.
One player who stands out in our projections is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been one of the hottest hitters since the second half of the season began.
Guerrero is our top pick for today’s home run bets, hinging to his exceptional form and favorable matchup. Our projections place Guerrero at an estimated 0.32 home runs for this game, creating a significant 12% edge against the best available odds of +520 on FanDuel.
PRO Projections Edge: Vlad Guerrero Jr. HR (+520)
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
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