PRO Projections reveal four hitters with big-time value to go yard today. But there’s a bit of a twist to today’s best bets.
Most of the top home run picks for PRO on Tuesday feature four plus-money predictions for hitters in the same game: Rays vs. Blue Jays.
Tonight’s venue is the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Although a below-average park for home runs this season, PRO Projections remain optimistic about tonight’s home run possibilities, listing all four players with a 5% edge or better to park one.
Friday’s payouts feature plus-money prices of +520, +525 and +1000.
Shawn Armstrong starts for the Rays tonight, while Jose Berrios will take the mound for the Blue Jays. Notably, Berrios is tied for the league lead with 21 home runs allowed.
Before lineups were released, here were the top four hitter edges.
Home Run Picks | Advanced MLB Projections, Best Bets (July 23)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Vladimir Guerrero Jr.” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
- Best Odds: +525
- PRO Projections: 0.31
- Grade: B
- Edge: 10.7%
Guerrero was our +525 pick this weekend, and he loves hitting in his home stadium. The Blue Jays’ slugger is heating up at the right time and has already come through for us multiple times this season.
At a 10.7% edge, he’s PRO Projections’ top overall pick to hit a home run on Tuesday.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Spencer Horwitz” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
- Best Odds: +1000
- PRO Projections: 0.18
- Grade: C+
- Edge: 7.4%
Horwitz is the top payout of the four Rays vs. Blue Jays home run picks tonight.
He offers solid value consistently hitting atop the lineup, and here’s the irony: Although he usually hits ahead of Guerrero, he’s the only hitter behind him in PRO Projections’ top edges for Tuesday’s home run picks.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Danny Jansen” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
- Best Odds: +520
- PRO Projections: 0.25
- Grade: C+
- Edge: 6.3%
Jansen also enjoys hitting in the Rogers Centre — five of his six homers this season have come at home.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Issac Paredes” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tb.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
- Best Odds: +525
- PRO Projections: 0.20
- Grade: C
- Edge: 5.3%
Paredes is the top-graded Rays hitter from our MLB models. Twelve of his 16 homers this season have come against right-handers, while nearly half have been hit on the road.
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