By the second, third — and sometimes fourth — game of an MLB series, we usually already have a good grasp at PRO Projections top home run picks based on that series’ ballpark factors and more.
Monday brings a fresh batch of MLB games and series to shuffle up the data! And one of today’s best home run picks across the nine-game slate is a longshot going off at +1050.
Developed and optimized by our team of MLB experts, PRO Projections are essential for identifying top home run prospects. By evaluating our expert projections against market odds, we look for valuable betting opportunities that might otherwise be missed, especially in the more entertaining markets like home run bets.
Transitioning from insights to action, we present our top betting selection for today.
Home Run Picks, Longshot Bet Preview from Expert MLB Projections
Tonight’s venue for PRO Projections edge is Progressive Field for Diamondbacks vs. Guardians, when Zac Gallen and Logan Allen take the mound for their respective clubs.
Although the park hasn’t been great for overall home run performance, it’s been a better setup for left-handed hitters than for righties.
That said, tonight’s advanced projection edge is on D-Backs hitter Corbin Carroll to go deep.
Currently, the odds for Carroll to round the bases are +1050 (BetMGM), but PRO Projections predict Carroll for roughly 0.2 homers, signaling a 5.2% edge. It’s not the largest, but chunky enough to play at shop with +1050 odds. For context, Carroll is listed as short as +900.
He admittedly got off to a slow start, but his home run production is ramping up. Carroll recorded six of his eight homers in July. Projections reveal another bright forecast and one of the better longshot bets to tail Monday.
PRO MLB Props Pick: Corbin Carroll HR (+1050)
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.