The Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox on April 8, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CHSN.
Shane Smith will make the second start of his MLB career Tuesday when the Chicago White Sox take on the Cleveland Guardians.
The White Sox used the first overall pick in last offseason’s Rule 5 Draft to acquire Smith from the Brewers after Smith posted dominant results in the minor leagues in 2024. Smith will be opposed by Ben Lively, who surprised last season by posting a career-best 3.81 ERA in 151 innings.
Find my MLB betting preview and White Sox vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
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- White Sox vs Guardians picks: First 5 Innings Under 4 Total Runs -120
My White Sox vs Guardians best bet is F5 Under 4 -120 (Bet365). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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White Sox vs Guardians Odds
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Nick Martin’s White Sox vs Guardians Preview
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For a White Sox side in desperate need of optimism, Smith could prove to be one cause for it. Most indicators suggest the 25-year-old has the potential to be an impact player at the game’s highest level.
Smith pitched to a 3.05 ERA across 94 1/3 innings last year, mainly in Double-A, with a 4.08 K/BB ratio. He had strong results in Spring Training, pitching to a 3.38 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP before a solid MLB debut last week versus the Twins. In his big-league debut, Smith allowed two earned runs and two hits and struck out three batters.
In his MLB debut, Smith held a Stuff+ rating of 96 and a Location+ rating of 99. He features an elite changeup (109 Stuff+ rating); however, its effectiveness could be lessened by his lack of a high-quality fastball.
After posting a league-worst wRC+ of 75 and averaging only 3.13 runs per game last season, the White Sox’s lineup appears likely to be comparably bad. They hold a wRC+ of 75 in the initial nine games of this season and hold the league’s lowest hard-hit rate of 24.6%.
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Lively will look to bounce back after an ugly performance in his first start. Lively allowed seven hits and four earned runs versus an elite San Diego Padres lineup last Wednesday. He held an xERA of 3.99 and an xFIP of 5.07 in his season debut, and his Pitching+ rating of 85 was on par with last season’s mark.
Lively outperformed his expected rates last season, holding a 4.57 xFIP and 4.00 xERA. He stranded 78.4% of base-runners, which was the highest rate he had achieved in any of his eight seasons in professional baseball.
The Guardians have gotten off to a below-average start offensively, as they hold a wRC+ of 98 and hit just .221. They have struck out 23.1% of the time and own a hard-hit rate of 30.8%. Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez are off to strong starts as expected, but the lineup’s depth has been an issue and could be a concern all season long.
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White Sox vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
While neither of these pitchers may prove to be a better-than-average starter this season, they are both well-situated to have strong outings in this matchup. The White Sox offense appears likely to be one of the league’s worst units this season after scoring just 3.13 runs per game in 2024.
The Guardians’ offense is also off to a slow start this year and was not overly effective against right-handed pitching last season, with a wRC+ of only 95.
Progressive Field should feature pitcher-friendly conditions in this matchup. It is expected to be 33 degrees at first pitch, with winds blowing in from left centerfield.
Considering the conditions in this matchup and the lack of offensive upside of these two lineups, there looks to be value backing the first five innings to feature less than four runs at -120.
Pick: F5 Under 4.0 -120 (Bet365, Play to -125)
Moneyline
The White Sox would be my lean side considering the +165 price tag, as Smith could prove to be the superior of the two starters in this matchup. The pitcher-friendly conditions could make it somewhat of a low-event, coin-flip type matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the White Sox to cover the spread would be my preferred play if I had to make a bet on the spread.
Over/Under
Backing the game total to go under 7.5 would be my lean in terms of a total.
White Sox vs Guardians Betting Trends
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White Sox vs Guardians starts at 4:10 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, live from Progressive Field. The game will be broadcast on CHSN.
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