The odds for Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (via FanDuel) for Wednesday have the Pirates as -168 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-110/-110). Right-hander Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for Chicago, while Pittsburgh hands the ball to right-hander Paul Skenes.
However, for my Cubs vs. Pirates prediction, I’ll be looking at a different market — the run line.
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction: Bet Pittsburgh on the Run Line
- Cubs vs Pirates pick: Pirates -1.5 | Bet to +125
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds
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Cubs vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kyle Hendricks (CHC) | Stat | RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-10 | W-L | 8-2 |
| 0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 6.33 / 4.97 | ERA /xERA | 2.16 / 2.64 |
| 5.24 / 4.44 | FIP / xFIP | 2.78 / 2.71 |
| 1.45 | WHIP | 0.94 |
| 8.7% | K-BB% | 26.2% |
| 46.2% | GB% | 50.4% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 105 | Location+ | 103 |
Tony Sartori’s Cubs vs Pirates Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Cubs Betting Preview: Tough Spot Here” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/chicago-cubs” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
Hendricks has struggled mightily this season. The right-hander is 3-10 with a fade-worthy 6.33 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP through 23 appearances.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as Hendricks ranks in the 13th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate. These woes are likely to continue against Pittsburgh, a team he is 3-6 against with a 5.17 ERA over their past 12 meetings.
Following Hendricks is a bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in xFIP.
Run support is also not a guarantee for this pitching staff. This season, Chicago ranks in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG and home runs.
Furthermore, the current Cubs lineup possesses a mere .115 BA, .269 SLG and .232 wOBA through 30 combined career plate appearances against Skenes.
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It’s a two-man race between Skenes and Jackson Merrill for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Merrill is the clubhouse leader, but there’s still time for Skenes to make a final push.
The former No. 1 overall draft pick absolutely torched the Cubs in their previous meeting. In that start, Skenes tossed six no-hit frames and racked up 11 strikeouts. On the season, Skenes is 8-2 through 17 starts with a commanding 2.16 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP.
His analytics are just as dominant.
The right-hander ranks in the 95th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate. Following Skenes is a bullpen that ranks 12th in FIP.
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction & Betting Analysis
The only concern with Pittsburgh in this matchup is its hitting. With that said, the current Pirates lineup boasts a dominant .298 xBA, .508 xSLG and .372 xwOBA through 158 combined career plate appearances against Hendricks.
Meanwhile, the starting pitching advantage clearly goes to Pittsburgh. Skenes outranks Hendricks in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, walk rate and barrel rate.
I believe it’s worth taking a shot on backing the Pirates on the run line at +130 rather than laying -168 on the moneyline. Chicago has lost by two or more runs in 12 of Hendricks’ past 17 appearances.
Pick: Pirates -1.5 | Play to +125 |
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Moneyline
Pass.
I don’t think this is a poor play, but I believe there’s more value in backing Pittsburgh’s run line.
Run Line (Spread)
Bet the Pirates (-1.5) on the run line at +130.
Over/Under
I’m going to pass on the over/under.
There are too many variables to attack this market. Skenes is a strong pitcher and should quell a modest Cubs lineup, while Hendricks is untrustworthy and possesses a poor track record against this current Pirates lineup.
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