The MLB returns from the All-Star break on with what has the makings of an excellent slate this Friday. The early window features an NL matchup between the St. Louis and Atlanta.
Let’s take a look at my same game parlay (SGP) for Cardinals vs. Braves on Friday, July 19.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
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Cardinals vs Braves Same Game Parlay (SGP): Friday, July 19
- Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
- Spencer Schwellenbach Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-320)
Parlay Odds: +124 (DraftKings)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)” subtext=”Cardinals vs. Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Gray has reached the six strikeout plateau in 14 of 16 starts this season in which he’s thrown at least 70 pitches. In total, the first-year Cardinal has notched 121 strikeouts in only 99 2/3 innings.
This season, against right-handers, the Braves collectively have the fifth highest strikeout rate (24.3%). And in the two weeks before the All-Star break, the Braves were at a 26.1% K% versus righties, with a below average 87 wRC+.
Gray has been dominant against right-handed hitting this season, with a 31.5% strikeout rate and a .219 wOBA. The Braves are righty-heavy, and figure to start five to six bats on that side of the platoon.
I also have Gray projected to reach the six strikeout mark in five innings tonight.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Spencer Schwellenbach Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-320)” subtext=”Cardinals vs. Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
After earning a promotion with only 13 innings at the double-A level under his belt, Schwellenbach has risen to the challenge as well as the Braves could have hoped.
The rookie is pitching to a 4.43 ERA (3.53 xERA), with 41 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings. He’s cleared this strikeout line in six of his eight starts, including all four at home.
Schwellenbach features five pitches (four-seamer, slider, cutter, curveball and a splitter), throwing each at least 13% of the time. He’s shown the ability to generate strikeouts with each pitch, and overall profiles as an above average punch-out pitcher.
Schwellenbach gets the Cardinals for the second time this season, having recorded six strikeouts in five innings in their last meeting.
The Cardinals’ offense has been up-and-down all season – overall they have a 23.3% strikeout rate against righties. With the long layoff coming out of the break, I tend to favor pitchers over hitters to recapture their rhythm.
I have Schwellenbach projected to reach four strikeouts before the end of the fifth inning tonight.
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