The Boston Red Sox (8-10) and Tampa Bay Rays (8-8) continue their series on Tuesday night at George M. Steinbrenner Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NESN and FanDuel Sports Sun.
Continue below for my Red Sox vs Rays prediction for Tuesday night, plus the latest MLB lines, probable pitcher breakdown, betting trends and more expert picks.
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- Red Sox vs Rays pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+115; Play to +100)
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Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Odds
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- Red Sox vs Rays Moneyline: Red Sox +115, Rays -135
- Red Sox vs Rays Total: 9 (+100o / -120u)
- Red Sox vs Rays Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-185), Rays -1.5 (+150)
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Red Sox vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Walker Buehler (BOS) | Stat | RHP Ryan Pepiot (TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 5.74 / 3.97 | ERA /xERA | 3.38 / 4.34 |
| 4.47 / 3.35 | FIP / xFIP | 5.75 / 4.11 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 17.9% | K-BB% | 12.3% |
| 43.8% | GB% | 46.9% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 95 | Location+ | 106 |
Red Sox vs Rays Preview, Prediction
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Right-hander Walker Buehler is set to take the mound for the Boston Red Sox and should serve as a strong buy-low candidate. It’s been a tough start for Buehler, who is 1-1 through three starts with a 5.74 ERA.
However, his underlying metrics suggest positive regression is likely. Despite the surface-level results, Buehler owns a 3.97 expected ERA (xERA) and ranks in the 74th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Following Buehler is one of the league’s best bullpens as Boston’s relief staff ranks in the top four in both fielding independent pitching (FIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
This pitching staff is also likely to receive solid run support. In 2025, the Red Sox rank in the top half of the league in runs per game, hits per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.
Boston’s success is likely to continue against right-hander Ryan Pepiot, who gets the ball Tuesday for the Tampa Bay Rays. While Buehler is a strong buy-low candidate, Pepiot is a clear sell-high candidate.
Through three starts this season, Pepiot owns a 3.38 ERA, but his underlying numbers are less encouraging. He has a 4.34 xERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
Pepiot also ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average (xBA), walk rate and barrel rate. Following Pepiot is a fade-worthy bullpen.
This season, Tampa Bay’s relief staff ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, FIP and WAR. Furthermore, while the Rays’ lineup has been productive, it trails Boston in runs and hits per game.
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Betting Analysis
There are several reasons to like the Red Sox as underdogs in this spot.
Buehler is due for positive regression, while Pepiot is due for a downturn. Boston also boasts the stronger bullpen and lineup. Considering these variables, it’s worth taking a shot on the Red Sox at +108.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+115 | Play to +100)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I’m betting Red Sox moneyline at +108.
My Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+108)
Run Line (Spread)
I like Boston to cover, but don’t want to lay -188 on +1.5.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Over, but don’t want to fade Buehler in this buy-low spot.
Red Sox vs Rays Betting Trends
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