The Philadelphia Phillies (57-43) host the Boston Red Sox (54-48) on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Red Sox will look to respond after dropping Monday’s series opener, thanks to the first walk-off catcher’s interference since 1971. With Monday’s win, the Phillies moved back to top of the NL East and are heavily favored to win the second matchup of the series, with Cristopher Sanchez (2.50 ERA, 115 IP) set to take on Richard Fitts (4.28 ERA, 33 2/3 IP).
Find my Red Sox vs Phillies prediction and moneyline pick for Tuesday night below.
Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions, Odds, Lines
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Red Sox vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Richard Fitts (BOS) | Stat | LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 8-2 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 4.28 / 4.81 | ERA / xERA | 2.50 / 2.99 |
| 5.20 / 4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 2.75 / 2.91 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 12.6 | K-BB% | 19.1 |
| 45.5 | GB% | 58.0 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 115 |
| 101 | Location+ | 97 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Preview, Prediction
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Despite suffering a frustrating loss in Monday’s series opener, the Red Sox have posted a record of 12-4 in the month of July, which has catapulted them into the final AL Wild Card spot.
They’ve averaged 5.5 runs scored per game in that span and own a wRC+ rating of 122.
The Red Sox have hit left-handed pitching quite well this season and have remained in strong form against lefties recently. They’re tied for third with a wRC+ of 113 versus left-handed pitching this season and rank third in OPS. Since July 1, they have a wRC+ of 109 versus left-handed pitching.
Fitts has made three starts since a disastrous outing on June 2, which resulted in him being sent back down to the minors.
Across those three starts, Fitts holds a 3.55 ERA, 2.81 xFIP and strikeout rate of 25.0%. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 110 in those matchups, as well as a Pitching+ rating of 111.
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Cristopher Sanchez has taken his game to an even higher level following his excellent 2024 campaign, pitching to an ERA of 2.50 in 115 innings of work this season.
He’s lost just one game since June 3 and holds an ERA of 1.63 in that span, as well as an xFIP of 2.78. Sanchez has allowed an xBA of .217 in those outings and has been hard-hit 36% of the time, while striking out 24% of batters.
The Phillies’ offense has hit to lesser splits versus right-handed pitching this season, entering this matchup with a wRC+ of 103 and an OPS of .730.
In July, they have a wRC+ of 97 versus righties, rank 15th in BB/K ratio and are 19th in hard-hit rate.
Alec Bohm will remain sidelined for this matchup after taking a pitch to the rib cage before the All-Star break.
Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
It’s not overly appealing to fade Sanchez right now, and it’s a bet that will lose more often than it wins, but a price of +165 to bet the Red Sox provides value.
Boston’s lineup has been in tremendous form recently. It’s been highly effective against left-handed pitching this season, while Philadelphia’s lineup hasn’t been in overly strong form and holds lesser splits against righties.
Fitts has the stuff to continue pitching at a high level moving forward, and we’re getting a good price to see if he can sustain his strong form while he’s not getting much credit in the betting markets.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline +165 (DraftKings, Play to +161)
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Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Red Sox to win at their current price of +165 is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Red Sox to cover the run line at -125 also looks to provide value.
Over/Under
My lean would be with the under in terms of betting the total. My main thinking in taking a shot with the Red Sox at +165 is that Fitts is capable of giving his side a chance by offering another strong outing against a Phillies lineup that hasn’t been that effective versus right-handed pitchers.
Red Sox vs Phillies Betting Trends
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