The Boston Red Sox (64-57) look to secure back-to-back victories against the Baltimore Orioles (72-51) on Saturday evening at Camden Yards. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.
The latest Red Sox vs Orioles odds for Saturday have the Orioles as -130 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9.5 (-102o / -118u). Brayan Bello will take the mound for Boston, while Baltimore is set to hand the ball to Cade Povich.
Below, I preview this AL East clash and make my Red Sox vs Orioles prediction. You can also find the latest MLB odds plus a head-to-head breakdown of Bello and Povich in the table below.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds
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Red Sox vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers for Saturday
| RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) | Stat | LHP Cade Povich (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | W-L | 1-5 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.3 |
| 4.97 / 4.79 | ERA /xERA | 6.27 / 4.32 |
| 4.55 / 3.76 | FIP / xFIP | 6.28 / 6.20 |
| 1.44 | WHIP | 1.69 |
| 13.5% | K-BB% | 1.1% |
| 50.7% | GB% | 38.4% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 85 |
| 100 | Location+ | 96 |
Tony Satori’s Red Sox vs Orioles Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Tough Year for Brayan Bello” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/boston-red-sox” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
It’s been a tough 2024 for Bello, who owns a 4.97 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through 22 starts. His underlying metrics are equally poor as the right-hander ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and hard-hit rate.
These woes are likely to continue against Baltimore, a team Bello possesses a fade-worthy 4.35 ERA against through four career meetings. Following Bello is a troubling bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Meanwhile, run support shouldn’t be an issue for this pitching staff. Boston ranks in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Run Support Isn’t the Issue” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/baltimore-orioles” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
Boston’s success at the dish is likely to continue against Povich. The southpaw is 1-5 through eight starts in his rookie campaign with a fade-worthy 6.27 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.
His analytics are equally troubling as Povich ranks in the 36th percentile or lower in xERA, strikeout rate, walk rate and barrel rate. Following Povich is a bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA.
On the other hand, run support is not an issue for this team. The Orioles rank in the top six of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis: Take the Over
There is little reason to not like the over in this spot. Bello and Povich both rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, walk rate and barrel rate.
Both bullpens also rank in the bottom eight of the league in ERA. Meanwhile, both lineups rank in the top-half in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Finally, the weather should help us out as the forecast calls for winds blowing out to left-center.
[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Over 9 (-110)” linktext=”Click Here to Bet Instantly!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML886617246&bookId=108&context=qs-admin” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]
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Moneyline
I’m going to pass on the moneyline.
While I trust Bello more than Povich, Boston outranks Baltimore in hits per game, BA, OBP and stolen bases.
Run Line (Spread)
I’m also going to pass on the run line.
I like the Red Sox at +1.5, but not at -185 to -200, which is where the market ranges at the time of writing.
Over/Under
Bet the over at 9.
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