The Atlanta Braves (26-29) host the Boston Red Sox (27-31) on Friday, May 30, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
Find my Red Sox vs Braves prediction and pick for the first five innings below.
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- Red Sox vs Braves pick: Braves F5 Team Total Over 2.5 -120 (DraftKings)
My Red Sox vs Braves best bet is the Braves’ Team Total Over 2.5 in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Braves Odds
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Red Sox vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) | Stat | RHP Grant Holmes (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 5.27/5.06 | ERA /xERA | 3.68/4.21 |
| 4.65/3.89 | FIP / xFIP | 4.85/3.97 |
| 1.43 | WHIP | 1.16 |
| 13.0 | K-BB% | 12.0 |
| 43.4 | GB% | 50.0 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 104 | Location+ | 101 |
Doug Ziefel’s Red Sox vs Braves Preview
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It has been rough sailing for the Red Sox of late as they have lost five straight ballgames. Tonight, they are sizable underdogs on the road, but we should see their bats come to life.
Contact-wise, the Red Sox lineup has been elite, leading the majors in hard-hit rate, ranking second in average exit velocity, and fourth in barrel rate. However, they’ve lost a key part of that offense with Alex Bregman going down with an injury.
Their cold streak has coincided with Bregman’s injury, but they can get it going tonight against Grant Holmes. Holmes has been excellent for the Braves, pitching to a 3.68 ERA and holding a 1.16 WHIP through 10 starts.
Although a deeper look shows that Holmes is due for sizable regression as his xERA is 4.21, and the Red Sox are the perfect lineup to knock him around. Holmes has been fortunate to generate groundballs at an above-average rate, but he does so while allowing a great deal of barrels.
Boston does not have a tendency when it comes to the result of their hard contact, but they are a great pick to click against a pitcher like Holmes, who is due to see some of those grounders get through.
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On the other side of this matchup, the Braves have run cold as well, losing seven of their last 10 games. However, also like the Red Sox, their lineup is on the rise and has an excellent matchup to get the bats going early tonight.
The Braves are fourth in average exit velocity, seventh in hard-hit rate, and 11th in barrel rate. They have gotten a jolt with the return of Ronald Acuna Jr., who’s supplied power at the top of the order.
Tonight, they get to face Lucas Giolito, who has struggled mightily this season. The veteran right-hander comes into this outing with a 5.27 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through five starts.
Giolito has solid command, but is missing bats at a career-low rate, with his strikeout rate down over five percent from last season. His other metrics do not indicate much positive regression, and with the Braves trending up, we are likely to see another rough box score for Giolito.
Red Sox vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
While both of these lineups are in great spots tonight, I’m leaning towards the Braves shouldering the offensive load, especially early in this game. Lucas Giolito is -165 to allow over 2.5 earned runs tonight and is nearly even money to finish the sixth inning.
Those prices tell me that the Braves are likely to do the majority of their damage against Giolito within the first five innings. So we can take a similar bet and fade Giolito with about a 45-cent discount by taking the Braves team total over in the first five innings.
Pick: Braves F5 Team Total Over 2.5
Red Sox vs Braves Betting Trends
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