By the second, third and even fourth game of an MLB series, we have a pretty good idea of the best home run picks.
As we head into the weekend, new series bring new opportunities.
With new matchups all over, PRO Projections also rolled out updated data, incorporating fresh variables such as ballpark factors that crucially impact gameplay.
Today, three home run picks stick out with great value — and two are in the same game.
Utilizing proprietary betting data, our projections compare odds, player statistics and more to reveal the most advantageous betting spots for hitters. Today’s matchups of significant interest are the Royals vs. Reds and Orioles vs. Red Sox.
Transitioning to today’s picks, let’s get into some undervalued home run hitters for August 16.
Best Home Run Picks Using Advanced MLB Data
Royals vs. Reds Home Run Pick: Bet TJ Friedl
TJ Friedl finds himself in a prime position at his home ballpark.
For left-handed batters like Friedl, Great American Ball Park substantially boosts home run chances. Friedl’s best odds are marked at +675 at BetMGM.
However, PRO Projections forecast Friedl to log approximately 0.24 home runs, translating to a 7.6% edge. This makes Friedl a solid pick based on our expert analysis.
PRO Projections Edge: TJ Friedl HR (+675)
Red Sox vs. Orioles Home Run Pick #1: Bet Triston Casas
Next, we turn our attention to Triston Casas of the Boston Red Sox. He’s back after an injury, and we like his chances out the gates vs. the O’s.
His bet odds stand at +875. Our projections estimate Casas to hit about 0.21 home runs, yielding a 6.2% edge.
PRO Projections Edge: Triston Casas HR (+875)
Red Sox vs. Orioles Home Run Pick #2: Bet Jackson Holliday
Lastly, Jackson Holliday of the Baltimore Orioles is another player highlighted by our analysts.
With his best odds at +1000 at FanDuel, our projections indicate Holliday is likely to achieve around 0.20 home runs, giving us a 5.7% edge.
Betting on the rookie is a solid strategy Friday.
PRO Projections Edge: Jackson Holliday HR (+1000)
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
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