The Baltimore Orioles take on a freefalling Minnesota Twins team on Friday night at Target Field. First pitch for this series opener is set for 8:10 p.m. ET on MASN 2 and Bally Sports North.
Remember that Twins prospect who was released a few weeks ago because he was giving away pitches because he “wanted the season to be over?” Are we sure that same sentiment isn’t felt throughout the organization? Because Minnesota is certainly playing like it does not want to reach the postseason.
In order to stay alive in the MLB playoff hunt, Minnesota must sweep Baltimore and needs Detroit or Kansas City to get swept. One more Twins loss — or one more win by Detroit and Kansas City — eliminates the Twins. Find out why I think it’s over for Minnesota on Friday night in my Orioles vs Twins prediction and preview.
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- Orioles vs Twins picks: Orioles Moneyline (+145)
My Orioles vs. Twins best bet is on the Baltimore moneyline, where I see value at +145. The best line is available at ESPN BET, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Twins Odds
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- Orioles-Twins Moneyline: Orioles +135 | Twins -160
- Orioles-Twins Over/Under: 8 total runs (-115o / – 105u)
- Orioles-Twins Spread: Orioles +1.5 (-160) | Twins -1.5 (+135)
[expertpickswidget league=”mlb” gameid=”233440″ date=”20240927″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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Orioles vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cade Povich (BAL) | Stat | RHP Pablo López (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-9 | W-L | 15-9 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 5.59 / 4.14 | ERA /xERA | 4.11 /3.65 |
| 4.92 /4.97 | FIP / xFIP | 3.63 / 3.35 |
| 1.50 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 10.2% | K-BB% | 20.4% |
| 36.1% | GB% | 43.1% |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 99 | Location+ | 104 |
Mike Ianniello’s Orioles vs Twins Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Orioles Betting Preview: Slumping Offense” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/baltimore-orioles” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
Cade Povich was drafted by the Twins in the 2021 MLB Draft but was traded to Baltimore at the 2022 trade deadline in a package for Jorge López. Povich entered the season as Baltimore’s No. 9 prospect and made his MLB debut on June 6.
He has spent the year going back and forth between the Orioles and Triple-A Norfolk, struggling a bit to adjust to big-league hitters. Povich is just 2-9 with a 5.59 ERA in his 15 big league starts. He does have an xERA more than a full run lower at 4.14, which provides some optimism. But he has struggled with both walks and home runs, a deadly combo.
Baltimore’s lineup has all the names to be a top offense, but a second-half slump has really cooled this team and cost them the AL East. Since the All-Star break, this team has slid to 12th in the league in wOBA and ranks ninth in scoring. While those number seem fine, they were top five before the break.
Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and Colton Cowser have been terrific all season, but Adley Rutschman and Ryan O’Hearn have gone ice cold, and Jackson Holliday has struggled in his rookie season.
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Twins Betting Preview: López Has Been Tremendous” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/minnesota-twins” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
With Minnesota’s season slipping away, Pablo López is the guy they want on the mound. He got off to a brutal start this season, which has ballooned many of his numbers. López went 8-7 with a 5.11 ERA before the All-Star break but has been tremendous since the mid-season classic.
López is 7-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star game. His ERA is top 10 in baseball over the second half. He has excellent command, is elite at limiting walks, and has done a much better job keeping the ball in the yard.
López has an excellent fastball, and his sweeper finding a groove has been a big reason for his second-half resurgence.
Injuries have been the story for Minnesota for most of the season. Byron Buxton has played 102 games, Carlos Correa has played 86 games, and Royce Lewis has played just 80 games.
Over the last month, the Twins offense ranks 27th in the league in wRC+ and 28th in wOBA. They have hit the fewest home runs in the league and are averaging just 3.33 runs per game.
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Orioles vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
I understand how good López has looked down the stretch here, but -175 is a crazy line for a team that has looked as bad as Minnesota has. They have essentially been playing must-win games for two weeks and continue to come up short.
The offense has gone ice cold, the pitchers are all overworked, and now the bullpen is even more taxed after a 13-inning outing against Miami last night.
In a crucial game last week, López was shelled for seven runs in just four innings against the Red Sox. His strikeout rate has been down and Baltimore has a top-10 offense.
Baltimore is essentially locked into the top Wild Card spot, and having nothing to play for could benefit them here and allow them to place loose, especially some of their guys struggling at the plate.
One more loss will eliminate the Twins from playoff contention, and I think there is a good chance it happens Friday night.
Pick: Orioles ML +145
Moneyline
This line is too big for how bad the Twins are playing. Desperation seems to be baked into the line, and I actually think that hurts Minnesota here.
Run Line (Spread)
I’m passing on the run line in Orioles-Twins.
Over/Under
I’m also passing on the over/under in Orioles-Twins.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Orioles vs Twins Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]
- 81% of the bets and 88% of the money is on the Twins moneyline.
- The over has taken 87% of the bets and 91% of the cash.
Orioles Betting Trends
- Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Orioles are 43-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Orioles’ last 5 games
Twins Betting Trends
- Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
- Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 41 of Twins’ 78 last games at home
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Orioles vs Twins Weather Forecast: Clear Skies” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”233440″ date=”2024-09-27″][/gameforecast]
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