The Atlanta Braves (82-70) and Cincinnati Reds (74-79) play the series finale of their three-game set on Thursday afternoon at Great American Ball Park. The Braves enter Thursday two games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks (84-68) and New York Mets (84-68) for one of the final two NL wild-card spots.
Can the Braves take care of business with NL Cy Young Award frontrunner Chris Sale on the hill? I preview this deciding game, the latest MLB odds and offer my Braves vs Reds prediction for Thursday below.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Braves at Reds Predictions” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/atlanta-braves” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/cincinnati-reds” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]
- Braves-Reds picks: Braves Run Line -1.5 (-120 to -145)
My Braves-Reds best bet for Thursday is on the Braves run line, where I see value at -1.5 (-120). The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Reds Odds
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” awayname=”Atlanta Braves” awayslug=”atlanta-braves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cin.png” homename=”Cincinnati Reds” homeslug=”cincinnati-reds” date=”Thursday, Sept. 19″ time=”1:10 p.m. ET” network=”Bally Sports” col1text=”Run Line” col2text=”Over/Under” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-1.5″ col1awayline=”+130″ col1hometext=”+1.5″ col1homeline=”+110″ col2awaytext=”9″ col2hometext=”9″ col2awayline=”-105o / -115u” col2homeline=”-105o / -115u” col3awaytext=”-220″ col3hometext=”+180″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/668039_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gamematchup]
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Probable Starting Pitchers for Braves at Reds
| LHP Chris Sale (ATL) | Stat | RHP Julian Aguiar (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 17-3 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 6.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 2.35/2.78 | ERA /xERA | 4.88/4.76 |
| 2.02/2.63 | FIP / xFIP | 6.32/5.85 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.23 |
| 26.7% | K-BB% | 4.2% |
| 44.6% | GB% | 37.1% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 86 |
| 103 | Location+ | 97 |
D.J. James’ Braves-Reds Preview for Thursday
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Braves Betting Preview: Atlanta Turns to Its Ace in Chris Sale” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/atlanta-braves” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
Sale owns a 2.35 ERA and 2.78 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 87 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 95th percentile. In addition, he ranks in the 70th percentile in ground-ball rate. He is striking hitters out at a 32.2% clip while holding a 5.4% walk rate. He has not given up more than two earned runs in a start since June 1. He is as much of an ace as any starter could be.
The Braves have an 86 wRC+, 9.4% walk rate, and 22.1% strikeout rate against righties in the last month. They have nine batters above a .310 xwOBA, so this overall wRC+ number does not really tell the entire story. They have depth to this lineup, and aside from hard contact, Aguiar is not thriving in any other facet of pitching at the moment.
The Braves have a 3.59 xFIP in the last month in relief with a 27.7% strikeout rate and walk rate a touch above 8%. They have five arms under that 4.00 xFIP mark, so behind Sale — even though he can go more than six or seven innings — they have artillery.
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Reds Betting Preview: Braves Should Get to Julian Aguiar” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/cincinnati-reds” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
Aguiar has a 4.88 ERA and 4.76 xFIP. The 23-year-old prospect has an Average Exit Velocity of 88.1 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate of only 33% in a limited 27 2/3 innings. However, his ground-ball rate is below average. He is also only striking out 12.6% of batters while walking more than 8%. This will not bode well with how deep the Braves’ lineup can look, despite a litany of key injuries.
The Reds have been putrid against lefties, so Sale could potentially go even deeper than he usually does in this outing. Cincinnati has a 48 wRC+, 9.1% walk rate, and 23.9% strikeout rate against lefties in the last month. They have five bats above a .310 xwOBA, with a couple of others right below, but the bottom of the order has not carried their weight. Sale should carve them up.
The Reds’ bullpen has a 4.45 xFIP in the last month with a 22.6% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. They do have five arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so Aguiar could have some backup. That said, the Reds do not have much to close down the game.
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Braves vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
Sale is just a force to be reckoned with at this point, and the Cincinnati Reds do not have the offense to keep up. The Braves have a deep enough lineup to force Aguiar out of the game early and make the Reds dig into the sore spots of their relief staff.
Look for the Braves to put up runs early and often, and bet them at -1.5 (-120). They need this series to stay alive in the NL Wild Card race, and Sale’s the guy to rely on.
Pick: Braves Run Line -1.5 (-120 to -145)
Moneyline
I’m choosing to pass on the Braves-Reds moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
My best bet is the Braves on the run line in Thursday’s matchup.
Over/Under
I’m choosing to pass on the Braves-Reds total.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Braves-Reds Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]
Braves Betting Trends
- Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Braves are 37-39 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Braves’ last 5 games
Reds Betting Trends
- Reds are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Reds are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Reds’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Reds’ 76 last games at home
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Braves-Reds Weather for Thursday” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”232579″ date=”2024-09-19″][/gameforecast]
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