Check out my two favorite player props for Game 3 of the World Series, courtesy of our Action Labs Projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
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Lance McCullers Jr. Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)
Odds via FanDuel
It would seem unlikely Lance McCullers Jr. can clear this line in a World Series game, but the value is clearly on over 5.5 Ks with a plus-money price.
McCullers has cleared this number in six of his last seven starts, achieving five strikeouts in the one game he didn’t clear the number. He recently posted six strikeouts over 100 pitches against the Yankees with a whopping 34% CSW rate.
McCullers has a slider-sinker combination that play well off each other:
Lance McCullers, 95mph Two Seamer and 83mph Slider, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/plkJaCuLxO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 16, 2022
He also has a bendy curveball that forced a 37% whiff rate this season.
McCullers has all the strikeout tools, which is why his strikeout rate is north of 25% this season.
Projection systems are also high on McCullers, with three different models projecting him to go over, including:
- The Action Network’s Player Props Tool: 6.5 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 5.9 Ks
- BallParkPal’s Pitcher Simulations: 5.9 Ks
But we get to bet this prop at above +110. And I’d bet on McCullers down to even money.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+114) | Play to 5.5 (+100)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Odds via DraftKings
I’m going back to the well with Kyle Tucker, who I continue to project value on during Houston’s postseason run.
Tucker has at least one hit in six of his nine postseason games, including a monster two-homer performance in Game 1 of the World Series. Tucker has a 71% hard hit rate through the first two games, meaning he’s seeing the ball well right now.
KYLE TUCKER AGAIN pic.twitter.com/KGnqkgpuQD
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) October 29, 2022
Tucker also gets to face another righty on the mound in Noah Syndergaard. Tucker’s batting average jumps 50 points against the right side.
I’m not too confident in Syndergaard today, especially in this matchup. Syndergaard relies heavily on a sinker-slider combination, and those are two pitches that Tucker hammers. Tucker has posted a +16 Run Value on Sliders this season with a .619 SLG and has a .522 SLG against sinkers.
BallParkPal rates this as the second-best hitter matchup today, per their Runs Created metric.
Image Credit: BallParkPal
Moreover, FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark Tucker for 1.68 total bases today.
But we’re getting good value on Tucker at DraftKings.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+130) | Play to 1.5 (+125)
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