Astros vs. Phillies Game 3 Odds
| Astros Odds | -134 |
| Phillies Odds | +113 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-104 / -118) |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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After completing a miracle comeback in Game 1, the Phillies’ comeback attempt fell short in Game 2 in Houston.
On Friday, Houston jumped out to a 5-0 lead before the Phillies came back to tie it up two innings later. Philadelphia picked up the win via a J.T. Realmuto home run in the 10th inning.
Houston once again jumped out to a quick lead on Saturday, scoring three in the first. The Astros led 5-0 before the Phillies scored two runs, but ultimately Philadelphia failed to replicate the previous night’s heroics.
Now, the series shifts to Philadelphia. The City of Brotherly Love has been an electric environment throughout the postseason and the Phillies have yet to lose at Citizens Bank Park during these playoffs.
Of course, Houston has dropped just one game during the postseason and is dialed in at the plate. Will the Phillies continue to ride their home-field advantage, or will this Astros offense be too much to overcome in Game 3?
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Houston Astros: Can Offense Stay Hot?
Houston was without Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP) for the majority of this season as he was out with a forearm injury and wasn’t activated until August 13.
The 29-year-old made just eight starts all year and went 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA. His numbers were solid, but his advanced stats were a bit more concerning as he posted a 3.57 xERA.
McCullers has made two starts in the playoffs and has had mixed results. He shutout the Mariners in six innings, but he allowed four runs and eight hits over five innings against the Yankees.
Just like it was for the majority of the season, Houston’s offense is locked in and has scored at least five runs in four straight games. After ranking sixth in wRC+ during the regular season, the Astros continue to generate runs throughout their lineup.
Yordan Alvarez is one of the best and most dangerous hitters in baseball, but it has been Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena who have led the way for the Astros at the plate.
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Philadelphia Phillies: Can Harper and Co. Keep Mashing?
The Phillies acquired Noah Syndergaard (RHP) from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline in an attempt to bolster the rotation.
Over 24 starts this season, Syndergaard went 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA. He appeared in 10 games for the Phillies during the regular season and posted a 4.12 ERA. At his peak, Syndergaard was striking out opponents at a 29.3% clip. However, that rate dropped to 16.8% this season.
This will be Syndergaard’s fourth appearance during the postseason and his second start. He has been effective in limited innings and posted a 1.69 ERA over 5 1/3 innings. In his lone start against Atlanta, he went three innings and allowed just one hit, a solo home run.
Philadelphia’s offense has been mashing the ball this postseason. Not only do the Phillies have the best batting average and on-base percentage of any team that played more than one series, but they also lead the field with 17 home runs.
The Phillies stars have been shining on the biggest stage. Bryce Harper has been unbelievable, batting .392 with a 1.230 OPS and five home runs during the postseason. Of course, he’s not the only one slugging. Rhys Hoskins has five home runs and J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber each have three.
Astros-Phillies Pick
Citizens Bank Park has been an absolute scene this postseason. Every team benefits from a home-field advantage, but there has been something different about the electricity of the Philadelphia crowd and the Phillies are clearly benefiting.
Philadelphia is 5-0 at home this postseason and is also averaging seven runs per game at home. In those five games the Phillies have hit 12 home runs and have a team OPS of .975.
McCullers’ xERA is more than a run higher than his ERA and after Philadelphia fell behind big in the first two games, I expect the Phillies to be more aggressive early and attempt to build a lead.
Houston’s offense is locked in at the plate and has done damage early in games. Syndergaard has lost his ability to strike out opponents and Houston has the second lowest strikeout rate in the league. Putting balls in play is a good recipe against a Phillies team whose defense has been it’s Achilles’ heel all season.
If the Astros were able to jump all over Philadelphia’s two aces in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, I can only imagine what they will do to Syndergaard. Additionally, the home crowd should be able to give the Phillies’ offense the juice it needs to get going early.
Play over 4 in the first five innings as both offenses should be able to put up a couple runs against the starting pitchers.
Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (+118) | Play to -110
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