Astros vs. Phillies Game 3 Odds
| Astros Odds | -134 |
| Phillies Odds | +113 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-104 / -118) |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Game 3 of the World Series is Monday night as the Houston Astros travel to Philadelphia to meet the Phillies with the series knotted at a game apiece.
The Phillies will send Noah Syndergaard to the mound while the Astros will counter with Lance McCullers Jr. Houston is road favorites with the starting pitching edge, but either way, the oddsmakers are expecting this to be an offensive-friendly game with the highest total to date.
How should you bet this critical World Series game? Our experts break it down below. Here are our best bets from World Series Game 3 between the Astros and Phillies.
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MLB Odds & Picks
First Five Innings Over 4.5 (+118)
Odds via FanDuel
DJ James: Noah Syndergaard has not had an appearance of longer than three innings in these playoffs, and he has mainly been tasked with managing relief outings.
With a weaker bullpen than the Astros, the Phillies are more than likely going to need some length out of him. Although Thor has a 1.69 ERA in 5 1/3 innings of work, it is hard to see him perform well with a hot Houston lineup.
Houston did struggle in the latter part of the regular season against right-handed pitching (98 wRC+ from August 1 and beyond). But in the World Series they have looked more poised at the plate, putting up five runs in both games.
In the playoffs, the Astros have four hitters above a .330 xwOBA against righties. José Altuve is also turning it around (4-for-9 overall in the World Series), after slumping in the prior rounds.
The Phillies were much more successful against righties in the regular season since August 1 with a 107 wRC+. The Phillies have four hitters above a .330 xwOBA in the playoffs, as well.
After hurting his hand on a champagne bottle, McCullers returns to the hill, but he did get tagged for eight baserunners in five innings in his last appearance.
This game should see some fireworks early. Do not expect either pitcher to go too deep into this outing.
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Mike Ianniello: Citizens Bank Park has been an absolute scene this postseason. Every team benefits from a home-field advantage, but there has been something different about the electricity of the Philadelphia crowd and the Phillies are clearly benefiting.
Philadelphia is 5-0 at home this postseason and is also averaging seven runs per game at home. In those five games the Phillies have hit 12 home runs and have a team OPS of .975.
Lance McCullers Jr.’s xERA is more than a run higher than his ERA and after Philadelphia fell behind big in the first two games, I expect the Phillies to be more aggressive early and attempt to build a lead.
Houston’s offense is locked in at the plate and has done damage early in games. Noah Syndergaard has lost his ability to strike out opponents and Houston has the second lowest strikeout rate in the league. Putting balls in play is a good recipe against a Phillies team whose defense has been its Achilles’ heel all season.
If the Astros were able to jump all over Philadelphia’s two aces in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, I can only imagine what they will do to Syndergaard. Additionally, the home crowd should be able to give the Phillies’ offense the juice it needs to get going early.
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Astros First Five (-125)
Odds via BetMGM
Collin Whitchurch: It was a bit of a surprise to see Rob Thomson opt for Noah Syndergaard in Game 3 over Ranger Suarez, even if the latter made a brief relief appearance in Game 1 on what amounted to something of a bullpen day.
One has to imagine the mindset of Thomson is that he would rather give his bullpen a heavier lift after the off day, as well as coming off a Game 2 where he didn’t use any of his key relievers in a loss.
Thomson has managed this postseason brilliantly, and what he does both with Syndergaard and behind him will be fascinating. He’s been unconventional in bringing in relievers like Jose Alvarado early, and I expect him to do something similar in Game 3 — a bold, necessary although also risky proposition given the teams will play Monday through Wednesday with nary an off day.
I trust Thomson to pull the right strings, but I was still surprised to see this first five innings line as short as it is for the Astros. Lance McCullers Jr. gives Houston a significant edge in the early frames, and although the Phillies hit lefties better and have some hitters (Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins) with positive run values against his key offerings (slider, curveball, changeup), this number is good enough to get me over the hump.
Games 3 and 4 are Houston’s biggest advantages on the mound, and it would be a travesty from their perspective to get to Game 5 with the series at anything worse than 2-2 (and preferably 3-1 in their favor, obviously).
Philadelphia’s bats have been red-hot at home all season long and the Astros did use two key relievers on Sunday in Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly. While Houston has a bullpen edge in general, I’m staying away from the full game and trusting McCullers and Houston for the first five innings.
I wouldn’t play it at anything worse than -125.
