Angels vs. Tigers Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
|
+105
|
8.5
+100 / -120
|
+1.5
-195
|
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -125 |
8.5
+100 / -120
|
-1.5
+165
|
Tarik Skubal looked sharp for the Tigers on Monday as Detroit edged the Giants in a makeup game. Now, they turn to the ever-reliable Eduardo Rodriguez on Tuesday in the series opener against the Angels.
Griffin Canning gets the start for Los Angeles. He hasn’t been reliable of late, allowing at least four runs in two of his last three starts.
The Angels also have a litany of injuries impacting their batting order. This furthers the point that the Tigers could succeed with Rodríguez at the helm.
The Tigers have also had more success out of the bullpen in July, so this should provide them another advantage.
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Los Angeles Angels
Canning owns a 4.52 ERA against a 4.23 xERA. His main issue this season has been hard contact.
His Barrel Rate is 9.4%, his Average Exit Velocity is 91.5 mph and his Hard Hit Rate is over 45% — none of these are impressive, but his 7.5% walk rate against a 24.8% strikeout rate have helped him when he’s been in a bind. However, Detroit has a few bats who could get to him in this outing.
The Angels have Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Jo Adell, Brandon Drury, Max Stassi and Logan O’Hoppe on the injured list. Still, they have a team wRC+ of 137 in 158 July plate appearances against left-handers.
They have five batters with five-plus plate appearances off of lefties in July with a .325+ xwOBA. The bottom half of their lineup, however, is struggling mightily.
Los Angeles’ bullpen might be the worst part of its team even with so many key hitters on the IL. The Halos only have two relievers who have an xFIP below 4.00, which has led to their collective 5.36 xFIP in July.
If Canning gives up hard contact, they do not have anyone in middle relief to bridge to Matt Moore or Aaron Loup, two of their more reliable relief arms.
Detroit Tigers
Rodríguez has a 2.69 ERA against a 3.42 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 87.6 mph, with a 7.3% Barrel Rate and 34.1% Hard Hit Rate.
His strikeout rate is 26.8% against a 5.5% walk rate, so all of these numbers are favorable compared to Canning. Rodríguez had one weak outing on July 5 against the A’s, but he has since stabilized.
Eduardo Rodríguez's 4th and 5th Ks
Thru 3. pic.twitter.com/glgLjOFs1M
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 20, 2023
The Tigers have an 82 wRC+ against righties in July. They have five players over a .320 xwOBA, though the bottom of their order is just as weak as the Angels’.
Since the Tigers get to face the weaker pitching staff in this game, they should have the edge over the Angels.
In relief, the Tigers have fared much better in July than the Angels. They have a 4.43 xFIP with only a 6.9% walk rate.
They have four relievers below a 4.00 xFIP, so behind Rodríguez, they have more options.
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Angels vs. Tigers Betting Pick
Griffin Canning is not a better pitcher than Eduardo Rodríguez. And while the Tigers don’t have the results, they can equal the effectiveness of the Angels with the sticks.
The relievers for Los Angeles have struggled mightily, and Detroit will not need as many behind Rodríguez.
Take the Tigers on the moneyline from -120 and play them to -140.
Pick: Tigers ML (-120 | Play to -140) |
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