MLB All-Star Game Predictions, Picks, Preview, Odds, Start Time

The National League will host the American League in the 2025 MLB All-Star Game on Tuesday, July 15. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX.

The American League holds a 48-44-2 advantage in the Midsummer Classic after the AL triumphed 5-3 last year. The American League has won 10 of the last 11 All-Star Games.

Find my MLB All-Star Game predictions, picks and ASG betting preview below, plus the latest odds, probable pitchers, viewing information and more.

MLB All-Star Game Prediction, Odds, Lines

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All-Star Game Preview, Prediction

All-Star Game Pitchers Preview for AL and NL

The American League will carry 12 pitchers, while the National League has 13 — including “Legend Pick” Clayton Kershaw, who I don’t necessarily project to pitch in his 11th All-Star appearance.

Overall, the two pitching staffs are extremely comparable on paper; here’s how their averages stack up across the above-listed metrics:

• AL: 3.04 xERA, 3.40 xFIP, 21.1% K-BB%, 109.2 Pitching+
• NL: 3.02 xERA, 3.23 xFIP, 20% K-BB%, 109.5 Pitching+

Only three pitchers in the field carry an xERA north of four: Kershaw, David Peterson and Shane Smith.

Only five pitchers carry an xFIP north of four: Kershaw, Smith, Carlos Estevez, Casey Mize and Andrew Abbott.

Lastly, two pitchers on each side carry a below-average K-BB%: Estevez (11.5%) and Smith (11.7%) for the AL and Kershaw (9.7%) and Peterson (12.3%) for the NL — both managers should look to avoid those arms.

However, if you remove the lesser pitchers from the sample, the gap only narrows between the teams, and the data only improves for the AL staff (2.79 xERA, 3.05 xFIP, 23.9% K-BB%, 113 Pitching+) compared to the NL (2.8 xERA, 3.07 xFIP, 21.3% K-BB%, 112 Pitching+).

That said, the NL seemingly has an extra high-leverage relief arm, with Randy Rodriguez (2.18 xERA, 30.1% K-BB%), Edwin Diaz (2.17 xERA, 29% K-BB%), and Adrian Morejon (1.81 xERA, 19.4% K-BB%) in their bullpen.

In contrast, the AL may only have two elite relievers in Josh Hader (1.73 xERA, 33.7% K-BB%) and Aroldis Chapman (1.94 xERA, 33.6% K-BB%). Andres Munoz (2.87 xERA, 22.5% K-BB%) is potentially half a tier below the other mentioned relievers.

All-Star Game Starting Lineups and Reserves

I prefer the AL reserve lineup to their starting lineup; I would make the AL reserves +109 underdogs against the NL starters over a full game, compared to a projection of +122 for the AL starters vs. the NL starters over nine innings.

In a head-to-head matchup between the reserve lineups, I would set the AL as -116 favorites, compared to -102 for a matchup between the AL starters and the NL reserves.

As a result, consider live betting the AL as the reserve position players enter the game for both teams, which is roughly after the second plate appearance for each starting position player.

Here’s how the average wRC+ and xwOBA figures break down by unit:

• AL Starters: 144 wRC+, .369 xwOBA
• NL Starters: 151 wRC+, 388 xwOBA
• AL Reserves: 133 wRC+, .364 xwOBA
• NL Reserves: 139 wRC+, .380 xwOBA

While the AL starters are stronger than the AL reserves offensively, the AL reserve lineup is a potentially elite defensive unit (and superior baserunning team), led by plus defenders at all three levels, including Alejando Kirk (+6 DRS), Steven Kwan (+13) and Bobby Witt Jr. (+3).

MLB All-Star Game Predictions, Betting Analysis

I projected the National League as a -105 favorite (51.5% implied) and don’t show an actionable edge on either side of the All-Star game moneyline. I would need at least +102 (49.5% implied) to bet the NL or +115 (46.5% implied) to bet the AL pregame, at a 2% edge or higher compared to my projected line.

I do show value concerning the total, however, projecting this contest for 7.8 runs. Bet Over 7 to -122 or Over 7.5 to -102.

Considering the defensive quality of the AL reserves, however, I’m going to look for a live Under (preferably 9 or 9.5) to middle with the Over 7.

Alternatively, or in addition, I’d target the American League on the moneyline as the reserves for both teams begin to enter the game.

Pick: Over 7 (bet to -122) or Over 7.5 (bet to -102)

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Moneyline

I don’t have a pregame edge on either side of the moneyline, but as I stated above, I’d target the American League moneyline live as the reserves enter the game.

Run Line (Spread)

I have no bet on either side of the run line.

Over/Under

My bet for this game is Over 7.

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