2024 Kentucky Derby Picks, Predictions for Saturday Derby Day & Derby Winner

Odds via TwinSpires. Lines will continue to shift in horse racing, and all bets are action based on the closing odds, not the lines when the bet was placed.

The 150th Run for the Roses is almost here, but what if we told you that the best bet at Churchill Downs on Saturday wasn’t even on the main event of the 2024 Kentucky Derby?

Don’t get me wrong — we have a winner bet, exactas and a trifecta for this year’s Derby in our 2024 Kentucky Derby picks and predictions. But that’s just the start. Below, you’ll find my full Kentucky Derby Day betting card for the major races on Saturday.

Because we know you’re probably here for the Derby best bets, we’ll start with my picks and predictions for Saturday’s main race. The 2024 Kentucky Derby is scheduled to start at 6:57 p.m. ET on NBC, NBC Sports and Peacock. And below that, you can find my full betting card for all eight of Saturday’s stakes races, including Pick 3s, Pick 5s, straight winner bets, and much more.

2024 Kentucky Derby Picks, Predictions

Kentucky Derby Winner: Just A Touch
Kentucky Derby Exactas: 8 | 17 & 8 | 15
Kentucky Derby Trifecta: 8 | 4,15,17 | 4,15,17

The Pick: #8 Just A Touch (10-1) is the most lightly raced in the field, but he hasn’t done much wrong in his young career. His sire won the Derby without making a start at 2 years old. He ran a great race in the Bluegrass, finishing second behind #2 Sierra Leone. It’s also important to note that Sierra Leone and the third-place finisher in that race both came from off the pace, meaning that Just A Touch was the only horse who was forwardly paced that was able to stay on. After the race, jockey Florent Geroux said Just A Touch has another gear. He’s continuing to mature and get better, so another step forward is likely.

Underneath: #15 Domestic Product (30-1) won the Tampa Bay Derby last time out. He was forced to close into a slow pace then and in his start two back. He split horses both times and didn’t have the cleanest of trips. Going back to his maiden victory, he’s shown he has the ability to be versatile, so while he would need to take a big step forward from a Beyer Speed Figure perspective, these connections put their horses where they can win.

#17 Fierceness (5-2) is the deserving favorite after demolishing the field in the Florida Derby. Jockey John Velazquez never even had to ask him, but the question is, who did he beat? He will have far more pace to contest with here, but his outside post should help. He has run a clunker in the past and it’s important to note that was over an off track and there’s potential for rain this weekend. If it’s a fast track and he runs his race, he will be extremely tough.

#4 Catching Freedom (8-1) has continued to get better with each of his five career starts, culminating with a win at the Louisiana Derby last time out. He’s bred to get the distance and has been training well leading up to the run for the roses. Jockey Flavien Prat always rides well in the Derby, hitting the board in five out of his six career months.

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2024 Kentucky Derby Day Picks: Predictions for Saturday’s Races

• Race 5: #8 Mischief Magic to win
• Race 5: Pick 3 — 4,8,14 | 10 | 7,11
• Race 5: Pick 5 — 4,8,14 | 10 | 7,11 | 7,12 | 5,6,11
• Race 6: #10 Vahva to win
• Race 6: Double — 10/11
• Race 7: #11 Coppice to win
• Race 8: #7 Who Dey to win
• Race 8: Pick 5 — 7,12 | 5,6,11 | 3 | 5,6,11 | 4,8,15,17
• Race 9: Pick 3 — 5,6,11 | 3 | 5,6,11
• Race 10 (Best bet of the day): #3 Bo Cruz to win
• Race 11: #5 Program Trading to win
• Race 12: #8 Just A Touch to win
• Race 12: Exacta — 8/17
• Race 12: Exacta — 8/15
• Race 12: Trifecta — 8 | 4,15,17 | 4,15,17
• Race 12: Trifecta Key Box — 4 | 8,15,17

Race 5, 12:36 p.m. ET: #8 Mischief Magic

The Pick: #8 Mischief Magic (4-1) is making his second U.S. start this year. He’s run well in both of his lifetime starts in the U.S. The fact that he came over to get a prep race under his belt in the U.S. is a great sign too. Trainer Charlie Appleby is one of the best turf trainers in the world, so when he ships his horses over for the biggest days, you know they are primed and ready to fire.

Underneath: #14 Cogburn (8-1) proved last year that turf is his preferred surface, with three wins from four starts and his top two Beyer Speed figures. While he’s coming in off a long layoff, he’s won off similar layoffs twice in his career, albeit on the dirt. His tactical running style should have him much closer to the pace than Mischief Magic. The biggest question for Cogburn is how wide does he get caught and does that cost him the race.

#4 Motorious (7-2) is the only horse in the field with three 100+ Beyer Speed Figure efforts. Since shipping over to the U.S. in 2022, he’s only missed the board one time, but that was last out in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He finished fifth in that race, only by 1 ½ lengths, as the favorite. He’s run well off the bench and has a second-place finish over this Churchill Downs turf course.

Race 6, 1:14 p.m. ET: #10 Vahva

The Pick: #10 Vahva (3-1) just missed last time out in the G1 Madison. She will get more pace to run into today and this will be her second start off the layoff. She’s a perfect 2-for-2 at Churchill and has never missed the board in five career starts going seven furlongs. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is back in the irons and you can be sure he won’t wait as long as he did last time to get her going.

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Race 7, 1:56 p.m. ET: #11 Coppice

The Pick: #11 Coppice (5-1) ships to the U.S. for the first time and will make her first start for trainer Chad Brown. Coppice was last seen at Newmarket, where she ran fourth to Inspiral, who came back to win the G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf in her next start. Brown excels in these situations and it’s important to note that jockey Frankie Dettori gets the mount, and he has ridden her to two of her career victories.

Underneath: #7 Evvie Jet (6-1) has a versatile running style; she’s won going gate to wire and closing from off the pace. In races like this with deep fields, that can make all the difference. While she’s been off since last October, she has won first off the layoff in the past. She’s one that you can’t overlook and definitely can’t let beat you.

Race 8, 2:46 p.m. ET: #7 Who Dey

The Pick: #7 Who Dey (10-1) is making his second start off the layoff and second start as a 3-year-old. While he didn’t win last out, finishing second, he gets back to a route and should improve second off the layoff. There should be plenty of pace for him to run into today, which he will need given his closing style. Additionally, he’s won at Churchill and at this distance before.

Underneath: #12 Nash (3-1) broke his maiden right here at Churchill Downs in freakish fashion last fall. After a brief stint on the Derby trail, he won his last start by more than five lengths. And while he’s never missed the board, the setup of today’s race doesn’t appear to be the most favorable for him.

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Race 9, 3:40 p.m. ET: #6 Neat

The Pick: #6 Neat (6-1) won last out off the layoff. He did it in very interesting fashion after being rank and taking the lead into the backstretch, finally settling down and then making a very impressive move to split horses late to get up at the wire. He’s a perfect 3-for-3 at the distance and has four wins from five career turf starts. It’s important to note that he’s won on firm and soft turf courses and rain is expected this weekend.

Underneath: #5 Legend of Time (7-2) is another one shipping to the U.S. for Appleby. He’s done little wrong in his career with four wins from five career starts. He’s proven distance doesn’t matter, winning at three different distances.

#11 Cugino (10-1) has had a few heartbreaking losses, losing his last three races by less than a combined two lengths. He’s looking to turn the tables on Neat today by adding blinkers. He’s never missed the board at this distance or on the turf, so he’s one that you must include, especially at the price.

Race 10, 4:31 p.m. ET: #3 Bo Cruz — BEST BET OF THE DAY

The Pick: #3 Bo Cruz (10-1) is the least experienced horse in the field, with only seven career lifetime starts. He’s coming off his biggest and most impressive win of his career in the Commonwealth. Two back, he ran into traffic trouble, otherwise he probably would have won that race as well. He’s won at Churchill and won at the distance. Given his tactical speed and the lack of pace in this race, look for him to be forward placed. He has the most upside in the field, and based on his last two starts, this price is far too attractive to pass up.

Race 11, 5:27 p.m. ET: #5 Program Trading

The Pick: #5 Program Trading (9-2) had nearly a perfect 3-year-old campaign, finishing with four wins and one second-place finish from five starts. He’s proven he can be versatile, winning on the front end and coming from off it. While he will need to improve from a Beyer Speed Figure perspective, that’s not impossible given he is making his first start as a 4-year-old.

Underneath: #11 Naval Power (7-2) is yet another Appleby hourse running. Naval Power has the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure with a 104. That was his first start in the U.S. and he didn’t have the easiest of trips. He was last early and then was forced to wait, go wide and finally split horses coming for home. With a cleaner trip, he will be very dangerous here.

#6 I’m Very Busy (4-1) comes in off back-to-back 100+ Beyer Speed Figure efforts. That said, two back he finished second by a ½ length to Warm Heart, who would be the favorite if running today. I’m Very Busy came back with an impressive victory last time out. Like Naval Power, he will do his best running late and will need to work out a trip, but jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has been aboard in both of his last starts, so he knows the horse.

2024 Kentucky Derby Picks

• Race 5: #8 Mischief Magic to win
• Race 5: Pick 3 — 4,8,14 | 10 | 7,10
• Race 5: Pick 5 — 4,8,14 | 10 | 7,10 | 7,12 | 5,6,11
• Race 6: #10 Vahva to win
• Race 6: Double — 10/11
• Race 7: #11 Coppice to win
• Race 8: #7 Who Dey to win
• Race 8: Pick 5 — 7,12 | 5,6,11 | 3 | 5,6,11 | 4,8,15,17
• Race 9: Pick 3 — 5,6,11 | 3 | 5,6,11
• Race 10 (Best bet of the day): #3 Bo Cruz to win
• Race 11: #5 Program Trading to win
• Race 12: #8 Just A Touch to win
• Race 12: Exacta — 8/17
• Race 12: Exacta — 8/15
• Race 12: Trifecta — 8 | 4,15,17 | 4,15,17
• Race 12: Trifecta Key Box — 4 | 8,15,17

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