Fantasy football playoffs are rapidly approaching, which means whether you’re playing for seeding or a berth, start/sit decisions carry more weight. That’s why, in order to help you optimize your lineups, I outline my rankings into tiers each week — tiers make drop-offs in expected production much clearer.
Note these tiers are as of Saturday evening, so be sure to consult my real-time rankings for any late-breaking news that could impact them.
Fantasy Football Tiers
Fantasy QB Tiers
| Tier | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson (vs. CLE) Josh Allen (@ NO) |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts (@ NYG) Tom Brady (@ IND) |
| 3 | Justin Herbert (@ DEN) Dak Prescott (vs. LV) |
| 4 | Cam Newton (@ MIA) |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford (@ GB) Taylor Heinicke (vs. SEA) Aaron Rodgers (vs. LAR) Kirk Cousins (@ SF) Tyrod Taylor (vs. NYJ) Russell Wilson (@ WAS) |
| 6 | Joe Burrow (vs. PIT) Derek Carr (@ DAL) Carson Wentz (vs. TB) Matt Ryan (@ JAX) Trevor Lawrence (vs. ATL) Daniel Jones (vs. PHI) Jimmy Garoppolo (vs. MIN) Mac Jones (vs. TEN) |
| 7 | Teddy Bridgewater (vs. LAC) Tua Tagovailoa (vs. CAR) |
| 8 | Andy Dalton (@ DET) Ben Roethlisberger (@ CIN) |
| 9 | Zach Wilson (@ HOU) Ryan Tannehill (@ NE) Baker Mayfield (@ BAL) Jared Goff (vs. CHI) Trevor Siemian (vs. BUF) |
Taylor Heinicke makes for an excellent streaming option this week. Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas are likely to return, which will elevate Heinicke’s passing upside. Plus his rushing upside gives him a sneaky floor/ceiling combo for a streaming option.
Tyrod Taylor is the other streaming option. He has a plus matchup against the Jets’ 32nd ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Only two teams (the Cowboys and Bucs) have an implied team total three-plus points higher than the Texans this week — and you know it’s a rare week when the Texans’ team total is above league-average. That means Taylor’s touchdown odds are elevated, making him a low-end QB1 option this week.
Russell Wilson needs to be treated as a high-end QB2 option until he can prove he’s 100% recovered from his finger injury, making it difficult to trust in leagues that start only one quarterback right now — I’d rather find a one-week rental and have Wilson go off on my bench than have him post his third straight “dud” in my starting lineup.
Daniel Jones gets a slight downgrade with Sterling Shepard out and Kadarius Toney expected to miss. Jones likes to target both receivers whenever they’re active, so being without them would ding his projection.
It’s remarkable how often Jones has to play without 1-3 of his top pass catchers — I believe he’s underrated as a result. He has yet to play a game in which Shepard, Toney, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Shepard and Evan Engram were all active for more than half a game.
Fantasy RB Tiers
| Tier | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor (vs. TB) Christian McCaffrey (@ MIA) |
| 2 | D’Andre Swift (vs. CHI) Dalvin Cook (@ SF) Austin Ekeler (@ DEN) Ezekiel Elliott (vs. LV) |
| 3 | David Montgomery (@ DET) Najee Harris (@ CIN) Joe Mixon (vs. PIT) |
| 4 | James Robinson (vs. ATL) Saquon Barkley (vs. PHI) Leonard Fournette (@ IND) Nick Chubb (@ BAL) Cordarrelle Patterson (@ JAX) |
| 5 | Darrell Henderson (@ GB) Antonio Gibson (vs. SEA) |
| 6 | Myles Gaskin (vs. CAR) Elijah Mitchell (vs. MIN) |
| 7 | A.J. Dillon (vs. LAR) Josh Jacobs (@ DAL) Miles Sanders (@ NYG) Aaron Jones (vs. LAR) |
| 8 | Devonta Freeman (vs. CLE) Melvin Gordon (vs. LAC) Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. TEN) Tony Pollard (vs. LV) Javonte Williams (vs. LAC) Damien Harris (vs. TEN) Dontrell Hilliard (@ NE) D’Onta Foreman (@ NE) Tony Jones Jr. (vs. BUF) Alex Collins (@ WAS) Kareem Hunt (@ BAL) |
| 9 | Ty Johnson (@ HOU) David Johnson (vs. NYJ) Tevin Coleman (@ HOU) Rex Burkhead (vs. NYJ) Matt Breida (@ NO) Devin Singletary (@ NO) J.D. McKissic (vs. SEA) |
| 10 | Jeffery Wilson (vs. MIN) Mike Davis (@ JAX) Boston Scott (@ NYG) |
| 11 | Nyheim Hines (vs. TB) Kenyan Drake (@ DAL) Latavius Murray (vs. CLE) Brandon Bolden (vs. TEN) Jamaal Williams (vs. CHI) Sony Michel (@ GB) DeeJay Dallas (@ WAS) |
James Robinson enters Week 12 without an injury designation. I’m bumping him up to a low-end RB1 as we can expect him to see more of the workhorse role he saw in Weeks 2-6 before getting hurt.
Nick Chubb gets a slight downgrade with Kareem Hunt expected to return this week. With the Browns installed as 3.5-point road underdogs, the likely game script doesn’t favor Chubb. Either way, he’s still a high-end RB2 fantasy option while Hunt can be trusted as a RB3/Flex option. There is a chance the Browns limit Hunt in his return as they have a bye next week, but I expect him to be back to his full complement of snaps for Week 14.
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The Packers’ running back projections are murky with Aaron Jones shaping up to be a game-time decision, so take their above rankings with a grain of salt. If Jones can suit up, I would need additional context — Is he 100%? Is he going to be limited? — before finalizing my ranks.
The most-likely scenario is the Packers hold Jones out for one more game with their bye on tap for Week 13 and get him back to 100% health for Week 14. In that scenario, A.J. Dillon will become a no-brainer RB1 play this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris are questionable, making the Patriots’ backfield tricky to project. However, with the Patriots slated as 7-point favorites against the Titans, this a great spot for both backs. Right now, I have them ranked as high-end RB3/Flex options, but if one of them ends up getting ruled out, the other would shoot up into RB2 range.
Long term, Stevenson has a path to RB2 value given he’s the only Patriots RB with rushing and receiving upside.
Dontrell Hilliard should pick up where he left off last week when he posted a 7/35/0 rushing and 8/47/0 receiving line. With Jeremy McNichols expected to miss his second straight game, I expect Hilliard to dominate the receiving work out of the backfield again. The Titans are 7-point underdogs and will also be without A.J. Brown, meaning they could lean heavily on Hilliard here.
Jets-Texans features four RB3/Flex options. Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman should form a two-way committee with Michael Carter out for the next couple of games while David Johnson and Rex Burkhead should also form their own two-way committee after Phillip Lindsay was released. Both running games should benefit from a soft matchup and a close game in which neither team has to abandon the run.
Keep an eye on Elijah Mitchell’s status. If he ends up getting ruled out for his second straight game, Jeff Wilson will shoot up into RB2 range.
Fantasy WR Tiers
| Tier | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper Kupp (@ GB) |
| 2 | Davante Adams (vs. LAR) |
| 3 | Deebo Samuel (vs. MIN) Justin Jefferson (@ SF) |
| 4 | Keenan Allen (@ DEN) Stefon Diggs (@ NO) Chris Godwin (@ IND) Ja’Marr Chase (vs. PIT) Diontae Johnson (@ CIN) |
| 5 | D.K. Metcalf (@ WAS) Mike Evans (@ IND) Terry McLaurin (vs. SEA) Adam Thielen (@ SF) Marquise Brown (vs. CLE) Michael Pittman Jr. (vs. TB) D.J. Moore (@ MIA) Michael Gallup (vs. LV) Tyler Lockett (@ WAS) |
| 6 | Brandin Cooks (vs. NYJ) Darnell Mooney (@ DET) Jaylen Waddle (vs. CAR) Elijah Moore (@ HOU) Tee Higgins (vs. PIT) Chase Claypool (@ CIN) Mike Williams (@ DEN) Brandon Aiyuk (vs. MIN) Jerry Jeudy (vs. LAC) |
| 7 | Devonta Smith (@ NYG) Hunter Renfrow (@ DAL) Laviska Shenault (vs. ATL) Marvin Jones (vs. ATL) |
| 8 | Jamison Crowder (@ HOU) Odell Beckham Jr. (@ GB) Van Jefferson (@ GB) Jarvis Landry (@ BAL) Russell Gage (@ JAX) Courtland Sutton (vs. LAC) Kenny Golladay (vs. PHI) Jakobi Meyers (vs. TEN) Tyler Boyd (vs. PIT) Emmanuel Sanders (@ NO) Cole Beasley (@ NO) |
| 9 | Rashod Bateman (vs. CLE) Darius Slayton (vs. PHI) Tim Patrick (vs. LAC) Cedrick Wilson (vs. LV) Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (@ NE) Tre’Quan Smith (vs. BUF) Robby Anderson (@ MIA) Marquez Callaway (vs. BUF) Kendrick Bourne (vs. TEN) |
| 10 | Nelson Agholor (vs. TEN) Bryan Edwards (@ DAL) Deonte Harris (vs. BUF) Marquise Goodwin (@ DET) Zach Pascal (vs. TB) T.Y. Hilton (vs. TB) Chester Rogers (@ NE) Olamide Zaccheaus (@ JAX) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. LAR) Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. CHI) Noah Brown (vs. LV) Keelan Cole (@ HOU) Dez Fitzpatrick (@ NE) Tyler Johnson (@ IND) Josh Reynolds (vs. CHI) Nico Collins (vs. NYJ) Kalif Raymond (vs. CHI) Tajae Sharpe (@ JAX) Randall Cobb (vs. LAR) |
Elijah Moore has been white-hot the past three games, posting lines of 7/84/2, 3/44/1 and 8/141/1 — and he was able to post those numbers with Mike White, Josh Johnson and Joe Flacco under center. We will see if Moore can stay hot with rookie Zach Wilson back this week.
Moore should see his playing time and target share go up with Corey Davis (groin) expected to miss. Moore was one of my favorite rookie WRs heading into the season — I believe Tyler Lockett is the best comp for Moore. That’s the type of upside he has in the NFL and we’re starting to see flashes of that.
Chase Claypool is playing through a turf toe injury. We can trust him as a WR2/3 play this week, but we will need to monitor this injury going forward.
Laviska Shenault’s usage should get a slight boost with Jamal Agnew placed on season-ending IR. The Falcons’ 30th ranked defense in DVOA sets up Shenault for a sneaky blow-up game.
Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson make for low-end WR3 plays this week. Beckham’s role in the offense is still a work in progress, according to head coach Sean McVay. However, OBJ had the bye week to learn the playbook. He should see a boost in playing time and targets in his second game as a Ram.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine makes for an interesting dart throw in deeper PPR formats. He’s the best bet to become Ryan Tannehill’s No. 1 target with Julio Jones and Brown on IR.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is always a nice chess piece to have if you’re a big underdog and need upside in any head-to-head matchups. Last week, I said he was more likely to “boom” than to “bust” with Allen Lazard. Sure enough, MVS erupted for 4/123/1 against the Vikings. However, he’s more likely to “bust” against the Rams.
The Rams run zone coverage at the second-highest rate, which doesn’t favor MVS as he tends to be more productive against man coverage. Additionally, Lazard is expected to return, cutting into MVS’ playing time.
Fantasy TE Tiers
| Tier | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Waller (@ DAL) |
| 2 | Mark Andrews (vs. CLE) George Kittle (vs. MIN) Dalton Schultz (vs. LV) Kyle Pitts (@ JAX) |
| 3 | Rob Gronkowski (@ IND) Dallas Goedert (@ NYG) Mike Gesicki (vs. CAR) T.J. Hockenson (vs. CHI) |
| 4 | Dawson Knox (@ NO) Pat Freiermuth (@ CIN) Tyler Higbee (@ GB) Evan Engram (vs. PHI) Dan Arnold (vs. ATL) Cole Kmet (@ DET) Tyler Conklin (@ SF) |
| 5 | Noah Fant (vs. LAC) Hunter Henry (vs. TEN) Logan Thomas (vs. SEA) C.J. Uzomah (vs. PIT) Jared Cook (@ DEN) Gerald Everett (@ WAS) |
| 6 | Austin Hooper (@ BAL) Jack Doyle (vs. TB) Pharaoh Brown (vs. NYJ) David Njoku (@ BAL) |
| 7 | Brevin Jordan (vs. NYJ) Anthony Firkser (@ NE) Durham Smythe (vs. CAR) Ryan Griffin (@ HOU) |
Evan Engram is a low-end TE1 with Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney and Kyle Rudolph expected to miss this week. Look for Engram to see 90%+ routes run and draw a couple more targets as a result.
Dan Arnold gets a slight downgrade with James O’Shaughnessy expected to make his return from IR. I expect Arnold to maintain a 80%+ routes run rate, even with O’Shaughnessy back in action, but we should be cautious given the uncertainty.
Only Travis Kelce has scored more fantasy points than Pat Freiermuth since I tweeted this:
Time to unleash Baby Gronk https://t.co/SGd4t8GhRR
— Sean Koerner (@The_Oddsmaker) October 29, 2021
I thought Freiermuth had sneaky upside once JuJu Smith-Schuster was placed on season-ending IR. But once Eric Ebron was set to miss Week 8, I knew it was time for Baby Gronk to break out.
With Ebron being placed on IR, I expect Freiermuth to provide mid/low-end TE1 for the rest of the season. Congrats if you landed him back around Week 6-8.
Logan Thomas is expected to make his return from IR and play on Monday Night Football. There’s a chance he’s limited to a 50-70% routes run role, though, so I’m treating him as a TE2 option and we need to play it safe with him this week.
Fantasy Kicker Tiers
| Tier | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Greg Zuerlein (vs. LV) Ryan Succop (@ IND) Younghoe Koo (@ JAX) Tyler Bass (@ NO) Justin Tucker (vs. CLE) |
| 2 | Ka’imi Fairbairn (vs. NYJ) Nick Folk (vs. TEN) Robbie Gould (vs. MIN) Evan McPherson (vs. PIT) Michael Badgley (vs. TB) Brandon McManus (vs. LAC) Matt Gay (@ GB) |
| 3 | Dustin Hopkins (@ DEN) Graham Gano (vs. PHI) Joey Slye (vs. SEA) Cairo Santos (@ DET) Daniel Carlson (@ DAL) Matt Ammendola (@ HOU) Jake Elliott (@ NYG) Jason Sanders (vs. CAR) Jason Myers (@ WAS) Zane Gonzalez (@ MIA) Matthew Wright (vs. ATL) |
| 4 | Riley Patterson (vs. CHI) Mason Crosby (vs. LAR) Chris Boswell (@ CIN) Chase McLaughlin (@ BAL) Greg Joseph (@ SF) Brett Maher (vs. BUF) Randy Bullock (@ NE) |
Fantasy Defense Tiers
| Tier | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots (vs. TEN) Houston Texans (vs. NYJ) |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals (vs. PIT) Buffalo Bills (@ NO) Carolina Panthers (@ MIA) Dallas Cowboys (vs. LV) Chicago Bears (@ DET) Atlanta Falcons (@ JAX) Philadelphia Eagles (@ NYG) |
| 3 | Miami Dolphins (vs. CAR) San Francisco 49ers (vs. MIN) Seattle Seahawks (@ WAS) Los Angeles Chargers (@ DEN) New York Jets (@ HOU) Denver Broncos (vs. LAC) Pittsburgh Steelers (@ CIN) Baltimore Ravens (vs. CLE) Green Bay Packers (vs. LAR) Los Angeles Rams (@ GB) Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. ATL) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ IND) Indianapolis Colts (vs. TB) New Orleans Saints (vs. BUF) Detroit Lions (vs. CHI) |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns (@ BAL) Washington Football Team (vs. SEA) Tennessee Titans (@ NE) Minnesota Vikings (@ SF) New York Giants (vs. PHI) Las Vegas Raiders (@ DAL) |