Who is favored to win at the 2025 Oscars? “Anora” is the betting favorite at -200 odds to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
Coming in right behind is “The Brutalist” at +240 odds to win Best Picture.
Other Best Picture contenders include box office sensation “Wicked”, which is +4200 to win Best Picture, and blockbuster sci-fi sequel “Dune: Part Two”, which is +8000 to win Best Picture.
This article breaks down the betting odds for the 2025 Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress and more.
The 97th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 2 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will be broadcast on ABC and hosted by Conan O’Brien.
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Currently, Kalshi offers a variety of Oscars categories, including Best Picture and Best Actor, but also more niche markets such as “How many Oscars will ‘Dune: Part Two’ Win?”
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2025 Oscar Odds
All odds via FanDuel Ontario and as of February 10.
Best Picture Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | -200 | 66.67% |
| The Brutalist | +240 | 29.41% |
| Conclave | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Emilia Perez | +2300 | 4.17% |
| A Complete Unknown | +2300 | 4.17% |
| Wicked | +4200 | 2.33% |
| The Substance | +5000 | 1.96% |
| The Nickel Boys | +8000 | 1.23% |
| Dune: Part Two | +8000 | 1.23% |
| I’m Still Here | +8000 | 1.23% |
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Super Bowl weekend was also a busy one in the awards circuit that are precursors to the Academy Awards. The Critics Choice Awards, Producers Guild Awards and Directors Guild Awards all took place, and the results sent shockwaves through the odds market.
“The Brutalist” had held the top spot on the Best Picture odds board since at least the beginning of the year, and held firm at -140 the day after Oscar nominations came out three weeks ago.
Then this weekend happened.
Mostly sitting between second and fourth on the odds board over the past month-plus, “Anora” swept the top prizes at all three of last weekend’s ceremonies, and is now the consensus favorite to win Best Picture.
Since the Critics Choice Awards came into existence in 1995, there have been 15 occasions where the same film won the top prize at these three award shows. Twelve of those 15 movies also won Best Picture at the Oscars, with the exceptions being La La Land, Brokeback Mountain and Saving Private Ryan.
At Kalshi, “The Brutalist” was trading as high as 58.2% on Feb. 6, but, as of this writing, is down to 28%, while “Anora” is up to 61%.
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Best Director Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Baker (Anora) | -155 | 60.78% |
| Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | +125 | 44.44% |
| Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) | +1900 | 5% |
| James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) | +2300 | 4.17% |
| Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) | +2900 | 3.33% |
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As shocking as the Best Picture movement was for “Anora”, how it affected the Best Director market was even more stark.
“The Brutalist” director Brady Corbet was an even stronger favorite than the film he directed. The day after nominations were announced, he moved to as strong as -700, which is an 87.5% implied probability of victory.
After Sean Baker won the top prize from the Directors Guild, the odds flipped, and Baker is now the favorite at -155, but it remains tight between those top two.
The DGA and Academy have only awarded the Best Director prize to different people three times since 2000: 2019 (Oscar to Bong Joon-ho, DGA to Sam Mendes), 2012 (Oscar to Ang Lee, DGA to Ben Affleck) and 2000 (Oscar to Steven Soderbergh, DGA to Ang Lee).
This market mirrors Best Picture at Kalshi, too. Corbet rose as high as 86.3% in trading on Feb. 6. After the weekend awards, the market is now at 52% for Baker and 43% for Corbet.
Best Actor Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | -170 | 62.96% |
| Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) | +160 | 38.46% |
| Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) | +2400 | 4% |
| Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) | +2400 | 4% |
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The Best Actor race remains a tightly contested two-man race between Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist” and Timothee Chalamet for “A Complete Unknown”.
Brody remains the favorite at -170, but the odds have tightened over the past couple of weeks. The day before nominations were announced, he was a -240 favorite. Then, he moved to -200 before moving to where he is today.
The most notable predictors in the acting categories are the awards given out by the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs (the British version of the Academy Awards). The BAFTAs are on Feb. 16, while the SAG Awards are on Feb. 23.
Brody remains ahead at Kalshi, although it got as tight as a 48-44 split on Feb. 7. As of this writing, Brody is trading at 64% while Chalamet is at 29%.
Best Actress Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | -200 | 66.67% |
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | +170 | 37.04% |
| Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) | +750 | 11.76% |
| Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) | +2900 | 3.33% |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) | +3300 | 2.94% |
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Demi Moore continues to hold firm as the favorite to win Best Actress, and is up to -200 after being at +380 as recently as the beginning of January.
Right behind Moore is Mikey Madison of “Anora”, who was the favorite around three weeks ago and is now trending slightly behind Moore.
The biggest riser is Fernanda Torres of “I’m Still Here”, who was barely on the radar before winning a Best Actress prize at the Golden Globes. Her odds have lengthened, however, from +400 after nominations to +750.
Cynthia Erivo is the longest shot for Best Actress for her performance in “Wicked” at +3300. However, if she were to pull off the upset, she would be the youngest person ever to achieve an EGOT (winning an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar and Tony).
The most notable predictors in the acting categories are the awards given out by the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs (the British version of the Academy Awards). The BAFTAs are on Feb. 16, while the SAG Awards are on Feb. 23.
Moore isn’t at her high-water mark on Kalshi as of this writing, but she’s still a strong 68% to Madison’s 21%. Moore climbed as high as 77.8% on Feb. 6. It’s also worth noting that she was at 4% as recently as Jan. 4, right before her win at the Golden Globes.
Best Supporting Actor Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) | -750 | 88.24% |
| Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) | +850 | 10.53% |
| Yura Borisov (Anora) | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) | +2600 | 3.7% |
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Kieran Culkin remains the strongest favorite of any of the acting categories at -750 for Best Supporting Actor for his performance in “A Real Pain”.
The deck has been shuffled a bit below him, as Edward Norton has become his most likely challenger at +850.
He switched places with Yura Borisov of “Anora”, who was once the second favorite and is now third at +1400.
The most notable predictors in the acting categories are the awards given out by the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs (the British version of the Academy Awards). The BAFTAs are on Feb. 16, while the SAG Awards are on Feb. 23.
At Kalshi, Culkin remains strong and is at 83% as of this writing, a range he’s hovered at since late 2024. Norton and Jeremy Strong have been battling it out in the second position.
Best Supporting Actress Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) | -650 | 86.67% |
| Ariana Grande (Wicked) | +500 | 16.67% |
| Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) | +2300 | 4.17% |
| Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) | +2900 | 3.33% |
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Zoe Saldana is hanging on to her lead for Best Supporting Actress as she is a -650 favorite to take down the prize. That’s down a bit from -1000, which she was previously three weeks ago.
The movement behind the Emilia Perez co-star hasn’t changed all that much. Her biggest challenger remains Ariana Grande for “Wicked”, and her odds haven’t changed since the last update at +500.
The most notable predictors in the acting categories are the awards given out by the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs (the British version of the Academy Awards). The BAFTAs are on Feb. 16, while the SAG Awards are on Feb. 23.
In late December at Kalshi, Saldana and Grande were neck-and-neck, but Saldana’s lead has only grown since there and as of this writing her 82% is as high as we’ve seen yet.
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Best Adapted Screenplay Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Conclave | -600 | 85.71% |
| Emilia Perez | +900 | 10% |
| A Complete Unknown | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Nickel Boys | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Sing Sing | +1800 | 5.26% |
Best Original Screenplay Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | -400 | 80% |
| The Substance | +500 | 16.67% |
| The Brutalist | +850 | 10.53% |
| A Real Pain | +1600 | 5.88% |
| September 5 | +2300 | 4.17% |
Best Costume Design Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Wicked | -700 | 87.5% |
| Conclave | +600 | 14.29% |
| Nosferatu | +1600 | 5.88% |
| A Complete Unknown | +2900 | 3.33% |
| Gladiator II | +3400 | 2.86% |
Best Makeup and Hairstyling Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Substance | -310 | 75.61% |
| Wicked | +300 | 25% |
| Nosferatu | +900 | 10% |
| Emilia Perez | +2900 | 3.33% |
| A Different Man | +3400 | 2.86% |
Best Production Design Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Wicked | -240 | 70.59% |
| Conclave | +430 | 18.87% |
| The Brutalist | +430 | 18.87% |
| Nosferatu | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Dune: Part Two | +2000 | 4.76% |
Best Original Song Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| El Mal (Emilia Perez) | -280 | 73.68% |
| Mi Camino (Emilia Perez) | +500 | 16.67% |
| The Journey (Six Triple Eight) | +750 | 11.76% |
| Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late) | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Like a Bird (Sing Sing) | +1400 | 6.67% |
Best Visual Effects Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Dune: Part Two | -700 | 87.5% |
| Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | +600 | 14.29% |
| Wicked | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Better Man | +2100 | 4.55% |
| Alien: Romulus | +2300 | 4.17% |
Best Animated Feature Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Wild Robot | -190 | 65.52% |
| Flow | +160 | 38.46% |
| Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Inside Out 2 | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Memoir of a Snail | +2900 | 3.33% |
Best Cinematography Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Brutalist | -190 | 65.52% |
| Dune: Part Two | +300 | 25% |
| Nosferatu | +380 | 20.83% |
| Emilia Perez | +2600 | 3.7% |
| Maria | +3300 | 2.94% |
Best International Feature Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Emilia Perez | -190 | 65.52% |
| I’m Still Here | +125 | 44.44% |
| The Seed of the Sacred Fig | +900 | 10% |
| Flow | +2200 | 4.35% |
| The Girl with the Needle | +4100 | 2.38% |
Best Film Editing Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Conclave | +175 | 36.36% |
| The Brutalist | +185 | 35.09% |
| Anora | +200 | 33.33% |
| Emilia Perez | +900 | 10% |
| Wicked | +1900 | 5% |
Best Original Score Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Brutalist | -250 | 71.43% |
| Conclave | +430 | 18.87% |
| The Wild Robot | +650 | 13.13% |
| Emilia Perez | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Wicked | +1400 | 6.67% |
Best Sound Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Dune: Part Two | -190 | 65.52% |
| Wicked | +300 | 25% |
| A Complete Unknown | +700 | 12.5% |
| The Wild Robot | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Emilia Perez | +1400 | 6.67% |
Best Documentary Feature Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| No Other Land | -370 | 78.72% |
| Sugarcane | +500 | 16.67% |
| Porcelain War | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat | +1200 | 7.69% |
| Black Box Diaries | +1900 | 5% |
Best Animated Short Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Beautiful Man | +115 | 46.51% |
| Wander to Wonder | +115 | 46.51% |
| Yuck! | +1000 | 9.09% |
| In the Shadow of the Cypress | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Magic Candies | +1400 | 6.67% |
Best Documentary Short Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| I Am Ready, Warden | -105 | 51.22% |
| Incident | +250 | 28.57% |
| Death by Numbers | +300 | 25% |
| The Only Girl in the Orchestra | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Instruments of a Beating Heart | +1100 | 8.33% |
Best Live Action Short Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent | -140 | 58.33% |
| Anuja | +230 | 30.3% |
| I’m Not a Robot | +600 | 14.29% |
| A Lien | +850 | 10.53% |
| The Last Ranger | +1800 | 5.26% |
Oscars FAQ
When are the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars (97th Academy Awards) are scheduled for March 2, 2025.
Where are the 2025 Oscars held?
The 2025 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O’Brien.
Who won at the 2024 Oscars?
Christopher Nolan’s film “Oppenheimer” was the big winner at the 2024 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most nominations (13) and overall wins (7). It also won Best Director (Nolan), Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Original Score, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing. Emma Stone won Best Actress for her role in “Poor Things,” while Da’Vine Joy Randolph won Best Supporting Actress for her role in “The Holdovers.”
Is Wicked nominated for an Oscar?
“Wicked” is nominated for Best Picture and has +1600 odds to win. Additionally, Cynthia Erivo has been nominated for Best Actress and Ariana Grande has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress
Where can I bet on the Oscars?
Kalshi allows users in all 50 states to wager on the Oscars via contract trading. Learn more here and sign up for a $10 new user bonus below.
Betting markets for the Oscars are also made available at sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel in select states, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Indiana, Kansas and Louisiana. It is also available in Ontario, Canada.
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