The Seattle Mariners (68-57) and Philadelphia Phillies (71-53) will face off in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on NBCS-PH.
Philadelphia is a -115 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Seattle is -105 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 7.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Mariners vs Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Monday, August 18, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
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Mariners vs Phillies Picks, Prediction
- Mariners vs Phillies pick: Mariners Moneyline (-105)
My Phillies vs Mariners best bet is on Seattle moneyline, with the best price currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Mariners vs Phillies Odds for Monday, August 18
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Mariners vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) | Stat | LHP Ranger Suárez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 3.31 / 2.81 | ERA /xERA | 3.28 / 3.26 |
| 2.99 / 2.62 | FIP / xFIP | 3.27 / 3.82 |
| 0.98 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 28.0% | K-BB% | 15.5% |
| 42.3% | GB% | 46.6% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 107 | Location+ | 107 |
Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview, Analysis
After finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting last year, Logan Gilbert was expected to be a top candidate once again.
An early elbow injury cost him a month and a half of the season and a few rough outings early in his return ultimately ended any hopes of that.
Still, Gilbert is one of the league’s best pitchers. He has a 3.31 ERA over 17 starts this year and a 2.81 xERA. He struggled in two outings as he first returned from the injured list but has looked like his old self lately.
Gilbert still has elite strikeout stuff. In fact, his 12.45 K/9 rate is currently the highest of his career. His splitter has been fanning guys at an unreal 64.5% rate.
The Mariners‘ offense has gone from its biggest weakness to one of the best in the league. They have hit the third most home runs in the league and rank sixth in wRC+. The top of the order is one of the best in baseball and they are even more dangerous when away from home.
Cal Raleigh is having an MVP-caliber season with 47 home runs and a .959 OPS. Around him in the order you have second-half Julio Rodriguez, who is once again catching fire at the right time. He has a .978 OPS in August.
Randy Arozarena and Jorge Polanco are both having great seasons, and recently acquired Eugenio Suarez is always dangerous despite a slow start with Seattle.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview, Analysis
Ranger Suarez has been the model of consistency and has always been underrated in this Phillies‘ rotation behind the bigger names. He started the season on the injured list but has a 3.28 ERA in 18 starts since his return in May.
Suarez came out of the gates strong but has hit a bit of a rough patch recently.
Suarez has allowed at least five runs in three of his last five starts. He has a 6.59 ERA since the All-Star break. He has allowed 21 runs while racking up just 23 strikeouts.
Now, Suarez has never been a high-end strikeout guy. And he is still generating a lot of soft groundballs with his sinker. But opponents have been hitting .320 against it this season.
At this point, we know what to expect from this Phillies’ lineup.
The core has been together for years and remains a top 10 offense in baseball. They are not hitting as many home runs as some years, but they still have a multitude of ways to score runs.
Kyle Schwarber is still bringing plenty of power with 43 home runs. He has a .945 OPS this season, trailing only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Raleigh, and Ketel Marte. His teammate Bryce Harper is not far behind him, and Trea Turner is having another strong season.
Mariners vs Phillies Betting Predictions
The Sunday Night Baseball hangover spot has become a well-known betting trend over the last few years.
Teams tend to struggle coming off Sunday Night Baseball to face a team that finished early yesterday afternoon. But the books know that too. I think that is already built into this line, which is why the value is on Seattle.
Gilbert has faded from the top-tier pitcher conversations due to an early injury, but he is still one of the game’s most elite pitchers.
His 34.3% strikeout rate is a career high and his fastball, slider, and splitter combo has been filthy. He has a remarkable 64.5% strikeout rate with his splitter, generating a Whiff on more than half of his pitches.
Over the last two weeks, Seattle’s offense ranks ninth in wRC+ and head of Philadelphia at 12th.
The Mariners have a team OPS .077 points higher on the road when they get away from the difficult hitting environments in Seattle. Their offense is just as dangerous in this matchup in Philly.
Seattle has the better starting pitcher and an equal lineup to what we should expect from Philadelphia today.
The Sunday Night Baseball effect is the reason we are getting them as the underdog here, so I’ll take the value on the Mariners.
Mariners vs Phillies Best Bet
- Mariners ML (-105)
Mariners vs Phillies Betting Trends
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