The Minnesota Twins host the Detroit Tigers on August 16, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
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- Tigers vs Twins pick: Twins F5 ML (-115)
My Tigers vs Twins best bet is on the Twins first five innings moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Tigers vs Twins Odds
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Tigers vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Casey Mize (DET) | Stat | RHP Zebby Matthews (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-4 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 3.50 / 3.68 | ERA / xERA | 5.11 / 4.11 |
| 4.20 / 4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 3.34 / 2.95 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 14.6 | K-BB% | 24.2 |
| 41.1 | GB% | 36.1 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 104 | Location+ | 103 |
Doug Ziefel’s Tigers vs Twins Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Going Through a Slump” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/detroit-tigers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
While the Tigers have benefited from a soft interdivisional schedule of late, this team that is 20 games over .500 has begun to struggle at the dish. Over the last four weeks, Detroit ranks second-to-last in wRC+ against righties, as well as holding the second-highest strikeout rate in that same span.
Those trends are troubling coming into today’s matchup as they are set to face a bright young righty in Zebby Matthews.
Matthews has had mixed results through his first nine big league starts with a 5.11 ERA, but it’s evident his stuff has tremendous upside.
His strikeout rate sits in the 90th percentile, and his walk rate is in the 85th. The issue has been hard contact when it’s made against him, but as we know, the Tigers have not been doing much of that lately.
Matthews is due for some sizable positive regression, and we should see it tonight as he catches this Tigers team in the midst of a slump.
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Good Matchup Against Mize” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/minnesota-twins” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
On the flip side of this matchup, we have a Twins team desperate for a win after dropping four of their last five games. However, the tide is beginning to turn for them offensively, and they have a great matchup to capitalize on tonight.
The Twins have been hitting the ball hard lately. They rank seventh in hard-hit rate against righties over the last four weeks. The issue is that over 42% of their balls in play over that span have been on the ground.
While groundballs have been a season-long issue for Minnesota, they face a starter tonight in Casey Mize who only generates them at an average rate and is no stranger to loud contact.
Tonight will be Mize’s third start since returning from injury, and he’s already contained this Twins lineup three times this year.
However, with the Twins trending up at the dish and Mize’s barrel rate and average exit velocity allowed sitting in the bottom third of the league, it looks like they are finally going to get to him.
Tigers vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a great buy-low spot on the Twins as they have the edge on the mound and at the plate. We’ve already seen support for them in the market.
However, with the Twins’ bullpen much weaker than it was before the deadline, I prefer to keep the bullpens out of the equation.
Back Minnesota to be leading halfway through this one.
Pick: Twins F5 ML (-115, DraftKings)
Moneyline
Take the Twins on the first five innings moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run line.
Over/Under
I have no angle on the total.
Tigers vs Twins Betting Trends
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[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”259135″ date=”20250816″][/gameforecast]
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