The MLB odds board for Wednesday is heavy with afternoon baseball.
One of our sneaky betting models is active in the first wave of games with a Nationals vs Royals pick. First pitch is 2:10 p.m. ET.
Later, a separate pattern singled out the Mariners vs. Orioles (6:35 p.m. ET) game as a smart play.
Wednesday’s betting trends take into account certain filters such as starting pitching, wind speed and more.
Overall, Wednesday’s best bets are headlined by a system picking winners at roughly a 59% clip lifetime since we started tracking.
With that in mind, let’s dive into MLB odds and picks for two of today’s games.
MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday
The Royals are home favorites behind Seth Lugo.
The veteran right-hander isn’t overpowering, but his stats and other key filters help set off the “Unders with Soft Starters and Neutral Winds” model.
Showing a ~59% win rate to the under in games since we started documenting, this system pings games to go under the total when featuring “soft” yet undervalued starters and controlled environments to suppress run scoring. The market may be overreacting to pitching stats, but it’s more about pace.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1479176″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Unders with Soft Starters and Neutral Winds” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20home%20team’s%20game%20number%20is%20between%2037%20and%20169%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2036%25%20and%2065%25%22%2C%22the%20series%20game%20%23%20is%20between%203%20and%204%22%2C%22the%20home%20pitcher’s%20strikeout%20rate%20is%20between%200.2%20and%200.53%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20starting%20pitcher’s%20WHIP%20is%20between%201.15%20and%202.05%22%2C%22the%20average%20wind%20speed%20is%20between%200%20and%2015%20mph%22%2C%22the%20wind%20direction%20is%20From%20Right%20or%20Left%20to%20Right%20or%20Right%20To%20Left%20or%20In%20or%20From%20Left%20or%20None%20or%20Left%20To%20Right%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$11,104″ record=”484-341-40″ winpct=”59%”][/betlabsembed]
PRO Pick: Nationals vs. Royals Under
Mariners vs. Orioles Pick for Wednesday
Shifting gears, another ‘under’ model is active on the Mariners vs. Orioles under.
The High-Strikeout Pitchers system, cashing 56%, identifies games with high-strikeout pitchers and often-inflated totals. Although both offenses boast capable lineups, pitching tends to win out in matchups like Wednesday’s Seattle-Baltimore game.
Trevor Rogers and Logan Gilbert get the starts for their respective teams.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1471536″ systemname=”PRO: High Strikeout Pitchers” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%2C%22the%20visiting%20pitcher’s%20strikeout%20rate%20is%20between%200.27%20and%201%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%208%20and%20100%22%2C%22the%20home%20pitcher’s%20strikeout%20rate%20is%20between%200.23%20and%201%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20game%20number%20is%20between%2026%20and%20162%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$5,667″ record=”365-283-37″ winpct=”56%”][/betlabsembed]