The Las Vegas Aces (19-14) and Phoenix Mercury (19-12) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Ariz. The game will be broadcast live on ION.
Let’s get into my Aces vs. Mercury prediction and WNBA picks.
The Mercury are favored by -4.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 169 (-108o / -112u). The Mercury are a -192 favorite to win outright, while the Aces are +160 to pull off the upset.
Aces vs. Mercury Odds, Pick
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- Aces vs. Mercury Spread: Mercury -4.5 (-110), Aces +4.5 (-110)
- Aces vs. Mercury Over/Under: 169 (-108o / -112u)
- Aces vs. Mercury Moneyline: Aces +160, Mercury -192
- Aces vs. Mercury Best Bet: Alyssa Thomas’ Rebounds + Assists Prop
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While I have had great success fading the Las Vegas Aces and their stars this season, they have been hot lately, winning five straight and seven of their last 10 games.
They come into a critical matchup against the Phoenix Mercury, who are a game ahead of them in the standings. The Mercury are one of the best defensive teams in the association, ranking second in defensive rating.
However, offensively, they are middle of the pack, and with the Aces trending up, we could see them struggle on the glass as the Mercury will have to contend with Aja Wilson.
These rebounding struggles are most likely fall to Alyssa Thomas, who has been excellent for Phoenix on the glass, averaging 10.5 rebounds per game. However, we’ve seen her have more than her fair share of struggles against Wilson and the Aces as she’s averaged just 6.2 rebounds over their last five meetings.
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This is the time to sell high on Thomas, who has been rolling in the rebounding and assist department. Over her last 10 games, she’s recorded at least 19 rebounds and assists combined seven times.
Although her recent hot stretch has only upped her season-long hit rate to 50 percent at her listed total tonight, with a tough matchup looming, it’s best to fade Thomas tonight.
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Best Bet: Alyssa Thomas Under 18.5 Rebounds+ Assists
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