MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions Today – August 4

The pressure intensifies as the calendar turns to August, and several teams in action today are fighting for playoff positioning.

There are 13 games on the calendar for Monday, August 4, and our MLB betting experts have already looked over the latest MLB odds. After analyzing those odds, they’ve come away with their MLB picks and predictions for today’s contests.

So, let’s pick some winners. Today’s MLB best bets are below.

Want more picks? Click here for an EXCLUSIVE discount! Get $50 off your first month of ScoresAndOdds Premium!

MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup]	7:10 p.m.	Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup]	7:15 p.m.	Brewers First 5 Innings Over 2.5 Team Total (+105)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup]	8:05 p.m.	Over/Under Pick
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”San Diego Padres” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” secondfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png”][/teammatchup]	9:40 p.m.	Over/Under Pick
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Derek Carty’s Guardians vs Mets Pick: Alonso Showing Value”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” awayname=”Cleveland Guardians” awayslug=”cleveland-guardians” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” homename=”New York Mets” homeslug=”new-york-mets” date=”Monday, August 4″ time=”7:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Derek Carty

THE BAT X is forecasting 0.32 home runs for Pete Alonso. Oddsmakers are implying 0.26 home runs, so I believe there is value. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 27% of the time, resulting in a 23% ROI with expected value of $23.44 (based on a $100 wager).

Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!

Pick: Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”San Diego Padres” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” secondfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Brewers vs Braves Best Bet: Fade Fedde, Back Milwaukee”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Brewers First 5 Innings Over 2.5 Team Total (+105)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” awayname=”Milwaukee Brewers” awayslug=”milwaukee-brewers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” homename=”Atlanta Braves” homeslug=”atlanta-braves” date=”Monday, August 4″ time=”7:15 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

If teams are going to keep throwing Erick Fedde out there, I’m going to keep fading him. However, this time we have an added bonus as I also want to back Milwaukee’s offense.

The Brewers just put up 58 runs in a six-game week. While they did hang 38 of those runs on the Nationals’ hapless pitching staff, they also put up 20 in a crucial three-game series against the Cubs. This offense is obscenely hot right now and the longer sample is also promising. Milwaukee has been a top-five unit by wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of July.

Pick: Brewers First 5 Innings Over 2.5 Team Total (+105)

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Yankees vs Rangers Best Bet: System Suggests Under”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 7.5 (-105)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” awayname=”New York Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” homename=”Texas Rangers” homeslug=”texas-rangers” date=”Monday, August 4″ time=”8:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Bet Labs

The “Silent Sharp Unders system targets regular-season MLB games where both teams are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close. These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success, stable weather conditions, and closing totals in a common scoring range.

Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under — likely due to matchup specifics or pitching. By following this soft signal — when the public eye is more focused on win streaks and not totals — this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.

This system has produced a 9% ROI both this season and over the course of its lifetime. This season, it is 140-103-8 (58%). Overall, it is 1273-1004-92 (56%).

[betlabsembed systemid=”1479171″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Silent Sharp Unders” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20temperature%20is%20between%2034%20and%2087%20degrees%22%2C%22the%20visiting%20team’s%205%20Game%20recent%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2040%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%205%20Game%20recent%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2040%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%207.5%20and%2010%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20game%20number%20is%20between%206%20and%20162%22%2C%22the%20visitor%20team’s%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2046%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2046%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20o%2Fu%20change%20from%20open%20to%20close%20is%20between%20-1%20and%200%22%2C%22the%20over%2Funder%20%25%20is%20between%201%25%20and%2029%25%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$21,426″ record=”1273-1006-92″ winpct=”56%”][/betlabsembed]

Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)

[quickslipbasic bookname=”Fanatics” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/573837_FanaticsSportsbook20ALT.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/08/Screenshot-2025-08-04-at-6.59.46%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”Parlay These Picks Instantly!” buttonlink=”https://www.scoresandodds.com/all/parlay?quickslip=1&onelink=/5kut/crrfhj73?sharedBy=QS_0105&ref=10001″][/quickslipbasic]

[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Padres vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: Expect Plenty of Runs”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Over 9.5 (+101)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” awayname=”San Diego Padres” awayslug=”san-diego-padres” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” homename=”Arizona Diamondbacks” homeslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” date=”Monday, August 4″ time=”9:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Bet Labs

Late in the MLB season, games played in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments — such as in Colorado, Arizona and Washington — tend to go over the total when the closing line is modest (≤10.5). These markets often underestimate run production during the final stretch of the season due to weather conditions (e.g., dry heat in AZ/CO, humid air in DC) and expanded rosters, which increase bullpen volatility.

Public perception around fatigue or playoff pressure may further depress totals, which creates value when betting overs in August to October for games at these specific venues.

Overall, this system has generated a 10% ROI and it is 329-248-26 (57%). This season, it’s a perfect 4-0.

[betlabsembed systemid=”1474971″ systemname=”Evan Abrams – Late Season Overs, Lower Totals — COL, ARI, WAS Home (YEAR)” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20was%20played%20during%20the%202025%20or%202024%20or%202023%20or%202022%20or%202021%20or%202018%20or%202017%20or%202016%20or%202015%20or%202014%20season%22%2C%22the%20game%20was%20played%20in%20September%20or%20August%20or%20October%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%200%20and%2010.5%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Over%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20home%20team%20is%20Washington%20Nationals%20or%20Arizona%20Diamondbacks%20or%20Colorado%20Rockies%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$5,926″ record=”329-248-26″ winpct=”57%”][/betlabsembed]

Pick: Over 9.5 (+101)

[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/736824_ActionPRO_promo_1500x844.jpg” cta=”Premium picks, tools & analysis” firstupsell=”Track & follow smart money” secondupsell=”Biggest player prop edges” thirdupsell=”Real-time expert pick alerts” buttontext=”SAVE 66% NOW!” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]