PRO Systems are firing on a whole bunch of MLB picks for August 4: Moneylines, overs and unders!
Backtested trends from our proprietary betting models highlight three key matchups for MLB Monday: Astros vs. Marlins, Royals vs. Red Sox, and Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
These carefully vetted angles provide confident moneyline and over/under picks, hinging on situational model plays which have been profitable bets since we started tracking.
Let’s get MLB Monday cracking with a trio of data-driven picks: one moneyline selection, one over prediction, and another under play.
MLB Odds, Picks for 8/4: Smartest Moneyline, Over/Under Predictions
Astros vs. Marlins Pick for Monday
Action begins at 6:40 p.m. ET with the Astros and Marlins.
Here, the play is on the under, supported strongly by several PRO Systems signals. Most notably, the “Silent Sharp Unders” system is active. Boasting a 56% win rate over a huge sample, it identifies games where both teams are performing well, and the total quietly drops from open (9 to 8.5, in this case.
The model specifically flags games featuring winning teams, stable weather and totals within a moderate scoring range. Despite overall recent team success, the market subtly favors the under, likely reflecting strong pitching or slower pace.
PRO System Pick: Astros vs. Marlins Under
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Royals vs. Red Sox Pick for Monday
Next up, in the Royals-Red Sox game, the recommended bet is on the Red Sox moneyline.
We’re riding the 67% win rate “Quiet Confidence System.” This model targets teams with steady, yet unspectacular recent form, winning their prior game by one to seven runs and maintaining at least a .500 record. The Red Sox, off a 6-1 win vs. Houston, fit the bill.
The system checks for teams as moderate favorites following consistent home or away performance, capturing controlled momentum rather than hype-fueled volatility. Because these teams fly under the public radar, they represent undervalued moneyline bets.
Be sure to check our MLB odds page for the best prices.
PRO System Pick: Red Sox Moneyline
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Padres vs. Diamondbacks Pick for Monday
Finally, the Padres-Diamondbacks matchup shades an edge to the game, landing over the total, which opened 9.5 +100 at FanDuel.
Director of research Evan Abrams found that late-season games in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments like Arizona often see run totals underestimated, barring the closing total is 10.5 or lower. Factors such as dry heat, bullpen variability from expanded rosters, and public concerns over player fatigue combine to suppress projected scoring.
Betting overs in these conditions during August to October has historically delivered strong returns, especially for home teams accustomed to potent offensive environments.
PRO System Pick: Padres vs. Diamondbacks Over
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