The Cleveland Guardians (54-54) and Minnesota Twins (51-57) will face off in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on MNNT.
Cleveland is a slight -118 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Minnesota is -102 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 7.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Twins vs Guardians predictions and MLB picks for Friday, August 1, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
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- Twins vs Guardians pick: Under 7.5
My Twins vs. Guardians best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Twins vs Guardians Odds
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Twins vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Joe Ryan (MIN) | Stat | RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | W-L | 6-4 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 2.82/3.20 | ERA /xERA | 3.51/4.27 |
| 3.18/3.50 | FIP / xFIP | 4.57/4.31 |
| 0.92 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 23.8% | K-BB% | 10.4% |
| 36.9% | GB% | 42.6% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 105 | Location+ | 92 |
Twins vs Guardians Betting Preview, Pick
The Guardians host the Twins on Friday night to open a new series.
On the mound, Joe Ryan gets the ball for Minnesota. He gave up five runs in his last start but had allowed three or fewer in eight straight prior to that.
Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams, who’s allowed just three earned runs while striking out 14 across two strong starts since the All-Star break.
Both teams come in off high-scoring series. The Guardians scored 10 and five runs in their last two games against Colorado, while the Twins gave up 13 and eight in their final two games at Fenway Park.
That recent scoring form creates a recency bias that can inflate totals just slightly, setting up a perfect angle for a fade.
This matchup fits Evan Abrams’ “Night Time Unders with Wind and Recency Bias” system. These plays focus on evening games with neutral weather, limited public action on the over, and modest recent scoring that looks better than it really is.
In these spots, the under quietly cashes at a high clip.
Environmental conditions help, too. Winds are projected to blow in or across the field in Cleveland, and game-time temperatures should fall in the mid-70s. That’s just cool enough to slightly suppress offense without drawing major attention from public bettors.
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Pick: Under 7.5
Twins vs Guardians Betting Trends
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