The Milwaukee Brewers (64-44) and Washington Nationals (44-64) will face off in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on Apple TV+.
Milwaukee is a -155 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Washington is +130 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Brewers vs Nationals predictions and MLB picks for Friday, August 1, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
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Brewers vs Nationals Prediction, Picks
- Brewers vs Nationals pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-115)
My Nationals vs. Brewers best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Brewers vs Nationals Odds for Friday, August 1
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Brewers vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jose Quintana (MIL) | Stat | LHP Mitchell Parker (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 7-1o |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 3.50 / 4.78 | ERA / xERA | 4.91 / 5.45 |
| 4.77 / 4.76 | FIP / xFIP | 4.47 / 5.04 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.41 |
| 6.3 | K-BB% | 6.4 |
| 45.3 | GB% | 36.7 |
| 85 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 105 | Location+ | 102 |
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals MLB Preview
The last three Brewers games have hit the over, with Milwaukee scoring eight and nine runs in two of them against the second-best team in the National League: the Chicago Cubs.
Who’s the number one? The Brewers.
Today’s starting pitchers are southpaws, and both offenses perform better against lefties this season. Milwaukee is 13th in wRC+ overall but climbs up to 10th vs. left-handed pitchers. Washington goes from 23rd to 19th against them.
The Brewers are on a roll and were the eighth-best run-producing team last month. They’ll go against Mitchell Parker, who had a 6.04 ERA in July.
As mentioned, the Nationals also do better against left-handed pitchers, and they’ll face Jose Quintana, whose numbers have been declining.
Over his last seven starts, Quintana’s ERA is 4.46, and his xERA is more than a point higher than his regular ERA, which points to an imminent regression.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the over in this game.
Late in the MLB season, games played in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments — such as in Colorado, Arizona, and Washington — tend to go over the total when the closing line is modest (≤10.5).
These markets often underestimate run production during the final stretch of the season due to weather conditions (e.g., dry heat in AZ/CO, humid air in DC) and expanded rosters increasing bullpen volatility.
Public perception around fatigue or playoff pressure may further depress totals.
This creates value when betting overs in August to October for these specific home teams, particularly during regular-season games.
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Brewers vs Nationals Best Bet
- Over 8.5 (-115, Fanatics)
Brewers vs Nationals Betting Trends
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