The Houston Astros host the Washington Nationals on July 30, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SCHN.
Read our Nationals vs Astros prediction and MLB over/under pick below.
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- Nationals vs Astros Picks: Under 8 (-120, BetMGM)
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Nationals vs Astros Odds, Run Line and Total
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Nationals vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| LHP MacKenzie Gore (WAS) | Stat | RHP Ryan Gusto (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-10 | W-L | 6-4 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.52 / 3.65 | ERA / xERA | 5.18 / 4.51 |
| 3.28 / 3.43 | FIP / xFIP | 4.28 / 4.33 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.48 |
| 20.4% | K-BB% | 15.4% |
| 35.1% | GB% | 35.2% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Tanner McGrath’s Nationals vs Astros Betting Insights, Game Information
One of our Bet Labs systems — powered by our guy Evan Abrams — popped for this game.
Unders with Soft Starters and Neutral Winds targets regular-season MLB games where softer home starting pitchers (low strikeout rates, moderate WHIPs) are on the mound in games three or four of a series.
By this point in the series, hitters have seen multiple arms, and scouting reports are sharper, yet scoring remains muted when the matchup lacks overpowering velocity and the winds remain neutral.
With the home team in the middle of a season grind, winning at a modest clip, the market often overlooks how often these quiet conditions lead to slower-paced, lower-scoring outcomes.
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Astros starter Ryan Gusto is the epitome of a soft home starting pitcher. He’s got average stuff (101 Stuff+) and has struggled across his 13 starts this season (5.18 ERA). However, he’s also due for plenty of positive regression (4.51 xERA, 4.33 xFIP) because he’s running such a high BABIP (.336).
The Nationals are not a scary lineup against right-handed pitching (94 wRC+, 24th), and the Astros’ bullpen is running hot (3.83 xFIP over the past month, sixth). Houston can keep Washington’s bats at bay for nine innings.
I’m scared of fading the Houston offense against left-handed pitching (115 wRC+, second), but Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore is a stud. He ranks 17th among qualified MLB pitchers in fWAR this season (2.8) behind a monster 29% strikeout rate. He’s throwing more curveballs this season, which is excellent considering it’s forcing a 40% whiff rate.
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As long as Gore and Washington’s underwhelming bullpen hang on, I’m confident in the Under. It helps that Houston’s dealing with injuries to Jeremy Pena (fractured rib), Isaac Paredes (strained hamstring), and superstar slugger Yordan Alvarez (fractured hand).
Pick: Under 8 (-120, BetMGM)
Nationals vs Astros Betting Trends
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Nationals vs Astros Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
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