The Miami Marlins host the San Diego Padres on July 21, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Padres will send Randy Vasquez to the mound for the opener of this three-game series against the Marlins’ Eury Perez.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
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- Padres vs Marlins picks: Padres ML +113 (DraftKings)
My Padres vs Marlins best bet is on the Padres moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Padres vs Marlins Odds, Spread, Best Bets
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Padres vs Marlins Run Line: Padres +1.5 (-190); Marlins -1.5 (+155)
Padres vs Marlins Total: 8 (O -118/ U -102)
Padres vs Marlins Moneyline: Padres +120; Marlins -145
Padres vs Marlins Best Bets: Padres ML
Padres vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Randy Vasquez (SD) | Stat | RHP Eury Perez (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.80 / 5.80 | ERA / xERA | 3.18 / 2.38 |
| 5.33 / 5.94 | FIP / xFIP | 2.86 / 4.02 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 0.91 |
| 1.0 | K-BB% | 18.2 |
| 38.5 | GB% | 31.8 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 99 | Location+ | 93 |
Padres vs Marlins Preview
The Padres won their previous two series’ and would like to make it three in a row against Miami.
San Diego’s offense has fared better than Miami’s throughout the season, ranking 17th overall in wRC+ compared to its opponent’s 21st spot. That edge continues in July, with the Padres sitting 16th this month versus the Marlins’ 20th place.
Vasquez holds a 3.50 ERA in his last seven outings and already had a quality start against Miami on May 26, when he allowed three runs and six hits across 6 1/3 innings.
The best card for San Diego tonight — and in this series — is its bullpen, which is the second-best in the MLB in ERA at 3.19, compared to the Marlins’ relievers (4.03 ERA), which ranks 19th overall.
The Padres’ offense — with Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts — just pummeled MacKenzie Gore and the Nats for eight runs yesterday, and if they can’t do the same to Perez, they might achieve it against the home team’s bullpen.
Our Bet Labs recommendation is to back the Padres, which offers good value on the moneyline tonight.
Padres vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
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When the Marlins open a series against a team coming off a game in the Eastern or Central time zone, the market often underrates the visiting team due to the perception of minimal travel impact.
In reality, these teams enter Game 1 with their routines intact and without the challenges of cross-country adjustments, allowing them to perform at expected or elevated levels.
Because the Marlins aren’t typically priced as a top-tier opponent, this creates value in fading them in the series opener.
This system capitalizes on that edge by betting against the Marlins in Game 1 during the regular or postseason when their opponent’s previous game was played in the Eastern or Central time zone, turning overlooked market assumptions into a profitable opportunity.
Pick: Padres ML +113 (DraftKings)
Padres vs Marlins Betting Trends
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