The Seattle Mariners (52-45) host the Houston Astros (56-41) on Saturday, July 19, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The second game of this AL West battle will feature Logan Evans on the mound for the Mariners and Lance McCullers Jr. for the Astros.
Find our Astros vs Mariners prediction and pick for Saturday night below.
Astros vs Mariners Prediction, Odds, Spread, Over/Under
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Astros vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) | Stat | RHP Logan Evans (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | W-L | 3-3 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 6.48 / 4.96 | ERA / xERA | 3.75 / 5.39 |
| 5.77 / 4.57 | FIP / xFIP | 5.03 / 4.51 |
| 1.66 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 11.5 | K-BB% | 9.3 |
| 43.7 | GB% | 39.8 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 90 | Location+ | 100 |
Astros vs Mariners Preview, Prediction
The Mariners are very effective at producing runs. They’re fourth in the majors in wRC+ with 115 while ranking 13th in average with .250 and eighth in slugging with .418.
However, most of that has been accomplished on the road. At home, Seattle numbers drop significantly, ranking 16th in wRC+ (106) while falling to 28th in average (.225) and 20th in slugging (.386).
T-Mobile Park is a big reason why the under is always a good choice, particularly with the value offered tonight, as our Bet Labs system “Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams, Later in Series” recommends.
The Mariners’ home ranks dead last in Baseball Savant‘s Park Factors in run production among MLB stadiums.
The Astros offense has scored 12 runs in their last five games combined, and this is the last place where you would expect them to break out of their recent slump.
Houston will face Seattle rookie Logan Evans, who has a 2.28 ERA at T-Mobile Park this season across four starts.
Astros vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
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This system targets unders in MLB series games (Game 2 or later) where both teams have winning records, suggesting quality pitching and competitive matchups.
However, public betting leans toward the over — likely expecting fireworks between top teams — which creates contrarian value on the under.
By capitalizing on low public support for the under (less than 35%), the strategy fades public perception in favor of market inefficiencies, especially when bettors overestimate offensive output late in a series.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 · BetMGM)
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Astros vs Mariners Betting Trends
[bettingtrends title=”” gameid=”257980″ date=”20250719″][/bettingtrends]
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