I’m picking three home run hitters and also building an MLB parlay for Saturday’s slate using Action PRO’s predictive models.
Saturday’s big ticket is a three-leg parlay, priced +63837 at BetMGM.
Expert PRO Projections are simply incredible for guiding home run picks. Our data accounts for factors like starting pitcher matchups, park conditions, and more. After assigning probabilities to hitters and converting them to odds, we’re able to list the biggest edges.
Let’s cover a bunch of home run picks standing out in our database for the first big Saturday of MLB’s second half.
MLB Picks for 7/19: Home Run Parlay Using Data-Driven Betting Models
Saturday’s games of focus are Reds vs. Mets, Yankees vs. Braves and Astros vs. Mariners.
Home Run Pick for Saturday: TJ Friedl
First up is Reds leadoff hitter TJ Friedl, available at +1000.
Friedl is a left-handed batter with surprising power potential. While he rarely presents value at home—usually hitting in one of the most hitter-friendly parks—our models highlight his strength on the road.
Remarkably, seven of Friedl’s nine homers this season have come in more challenging ballparks. PRO Projections give him a 0.14 expected home run mark for today’s game, translating to a +4% edge versus current market odds. At +1000, why not?
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/07/IMG_3021.jpeg” buttontext=”Instantly Bet TJ Friedl to Homer” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1692486690&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Drake Baldwin
Next, Braves catcher Drake Baldwin is trading around +650 to hit a homer against the Yankees. Despite playing only 66 games, Baldwin has bashed 11 homers alongside a stellar .833 slugging percentage.
He is a potent pull hitter who thrives at Truist Park, which benefits lefties like him. Although some sportsbooks offer lower odds near +430, the +650 at BetMGM offers exceptional value, with PRO Projections estimating a 0.19 expected home run and a 4% edge on the wager.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/07/Fixproqs.jpg” buttontext=”Instantly Bet Drake Baldwin to Homer!” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1692588956&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Jose Altuve
Finally, Astros star Jose Altuve is priced at +675 and receives strong backing from our models. His swing path favors home runs, and PRO Projections forecast 0.19 expected home runs, giving bettors a 4.8% edge.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/07/IMG_3020.jpeg” buttontext=”Instantly Bet Jose Altuve to Homer!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1692558527&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
+63837 MLB Parlay for 7/19/2025
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/07/IMG_3019.jpeg” buttontext=”Instantly Bet Today’s PRO Parlay!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1692558527&deeplinkId[1]=ML1692588956&deeplinkId[2]=ML1692486690&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high-grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.