Situational betting models are active with picks when the second half of the MLB season opens up Friday, July 18.
Below, we’re profiling two neat picks from our PRO Systems in Bet Labs. Both predictions are moneyline bets, featuring intriguing non-conference tilts.
Friday’s games of focus are Angels vs. Phillies and Royals vs. Marlins.
The headliner across Friday’s trends are two situational models cashing roughly 62%, both pinging the same side.
Let’s jump into both MLB picks for the July 18 slate using backtested trends.
MLB Odds for 7/18: Best Moneyline Picks
Angels vs. Phillies first pitch is 6:45 p.m. ET. Royals vs. Marlins, meanwhile, goes off at 7:10 p.m.
PRO Systems’ first recommendation is to back the underdog Angels, priced roughly +180 on the moneyline.
Action PRO’s “Road Dogs Interleague, Early Series” model highlights strong value on Los Angeles. This trend reveals that early in an interleague series, road underdogs are hot.
Often, the public overemphasizes the impact of home-field advantage. Additionally, interleague play adds complexity due to unfamiliar opposing pitchers and other factors.
Overall, this model has cashed 43% of past picks. At a moneyline price of +180, the Angels are implied to have roughly a 35-36% chance of winning by the market.
Riding out Friday’s edge offers a strong trend to play the Angels.
PRO Systems Pick: Angels Moneyline
Friday’s second spotlight is on the Kansas City Royals moneyline, fitting perfectly within multiple PRO Systems.
The first betting model from our database, called the “Road Flip Bet,” targets slight road favorites in non-division games. Specifically, it looks for teams priced between -120 and -140 on the road, if the last game was at home. This approach filters out division rivalries to avoid familiarity biases and zeroes in on cases where market confidence in the traveling team’s quality outweighs typical venue disadvantages.
Complementing the Royals is a second trend — the “Road Tilt in the Dead Heat” syste — which examines non-division matchups between two teams evenly matched in win percentage. When the market quietly favors the road team by a small margin, despite nearly identical records, it signals hidden value.
Both systems have demonstrated a strong hit rate of around 62%. They align decisively on the Royals moneyline Friday.
PRO Pick: Royals Moneyline
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