Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 318 (July 19)

Check out my Crute vs Prachnio prediction for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19.

Crute is winless in his last five UFC fights, although two of those have bizarrely been draws. Prior to that, he had won four of his first five UFC bouts. Prachnio is 4-6 in the UFC.

Here’s my Crute vs Prachnio pick for tonight.

Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio Odds

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Crute vs Prachnio Pick

Jimmy Crute should have all of the grappling upside in this matchup (attempts six takedowns per five minutes at distance; 53% accuracy vs. 54% takedown defense for Prachnio; 67% vs. 15% control rate), but Marcin Prachnio is the more technical kickboxer (+2.8 to -1.2 strike differential per minute).

Neither fighter has a good chin, but I’d rate the punching power for either man as below average for the division. The likeliest ways this fight finishes are Prachnio destroying Crute with leg kicks and compromising his movement, or Crute sinking in a submission. Crute is 0-3-2 in his past five fights, winless since 2020, and desperate to see his hand raised, and Prachnio, who is eight years his senior, has been submitted in the third round in his two most recent losses.

As a result, I’d expect Crute to go for broke late to find a finish on the mat regardless of the scorecards, and I’m more intrigued by the Over 1.5 Rounds or Over 2.5 rounds than betting the goes to decision prop (projected +125, listed +160). Additionally, I’d prefer to bet Crute in an SGP with either round total as opposed to betting Crute by decision (projected +221, listed +310) at juicier odds.

While I do think Crute has the cardio advantage in this fight, his odds to win in Round 2 (+400) and Round 3 (+700) aren’t particularly enticing. However, I would bet on Crute live if the first round is competitive and his price improves.

Crute vs Prachnio Predictions

• Over 1.5 Rounds (-160, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (bet to -175)
• Jimmy Crute Live after Round 1

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