There are 11 games on the MLB calendar for Thursday, July 11 and the action gets started early with a Mets vs. Orioles doubleheader.
Yes, we have a pick for that early contest, but that’s not all. We also have MLB picks for Marlins vs. Reds, Mariners vs. Yankees and Rangers vs. Angels. So, let’s dig right in.
Today’s MLB best bets are below.
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MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | 12:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Miami Marlins” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | 5:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Seattle Mariners” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png”][/teammatchup] | 9:38 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Allan Lem’s Mets vs Orioles Best Bet: This Line’s a Touch Too High”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”First 5 Innings Under 5.5 (-125)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” awayname=”New York Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” homename=”Baltimore Orioles” homeslug=”baltimore-orioles” date=”Thursday, July 10″ time=”12:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Allan Lem
David Peterson gets a good matchup against an Orioles team that has ranked among the bottom five in baseball this season against left-handed pitching. The Orioles have a wRC+ of just 76, meaning they’ve produced runs at a clip that’s way below average. They also rank last in ISO against left-handed pitching, and that doesn’t bode well against Peterson, who has allowed just a 0.62 HR/9 this season.
The sweaty part of this bet will be Charlie Morton against the Mets. Morton has shown signs of decline this season, as his SwStr% is the lowest it’s been since the 2017 season, but his underlying metrics suggest he hasn’t been as bad as his surface stats appear. He has a 5.47 ERA, but just a 4.33 xERA and a 4.43 FIP, but just a 4.10 xFIP. This is obviously a scary spot against the Mets’ power hitters, but I’m projecting this closer to five runs in the first five innings.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 5.5 (-125)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Miami Marlins” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Seattle Mariners” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Derek Carty’s Marlins vs Reds Best Bet: McLain Showing Value”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Matt McLain Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” awayname=”Miami Marlins” awayslug=”miami-marlins” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” homename=”Cincinnati Reds” homeslug=”cincinnati-reds” date=”Thursday, July 10″ time=”5:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on Matt McLain’s home runs prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 0.21 home runs, and oddsmakers are implying 0.16. The model believes there is a 19% chance he records at least one home run, so there is value on the over at +600.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Matt McLain Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Miami Marlins” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Seattle Mariners” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kyle Murray’s Mariners vs Yankees Best Bet: Back Woo, Fade Stroman”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-120)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” awayname=”Seattle Mariners” awayslug=”seattle-mariners” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” homename=”New York Yankees” homeslug=”new-york-yankees” date=”Thursday, July 10″ time=”7:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Kyle Murray
If you have been around over the past couple months, you have seen me fading Bryan Woo’s strikeouts prop fairly often. However, I do think he is a really solid pitcher, and that is backed up by his underlying metrics this season (3.42 SIERA, 3.50 xFIP).
He does have a tough matchup against the Yankees, but I give him a big edge over Marcus Stroman, who has really struggled this season. Stroman has a 5.33 SIERA and a 5.16 xFIP in limited innings, and this is a tough spot for him, as he does not generate many whiffs. Seattle has plenty of power to take advantage and I expect the Mariners to do so.
Pick: Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-120)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Miami Marlins” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Seattle Mariners” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Rangers vs Angels Best Bet: System Suggests Under”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 9.5 (-104)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” awayname=”Texas Rangers” awayslug=”texas-rangers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” homename=”Los Angeles Angels” homeslug=”los-angeles-angels” date=”Thursday, July 10″ time=”9:38 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Bet Labs
The “Silent Sharp Unders” system targets regular-season MLB games in which both teams are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close. These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success that are playing in stable weather conditions and in game with a closing total in a common scoring range.
Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under — likely due to matchup specifics or pitching. By following this soft signal — when the public eye is more focused on a win streak than a total — this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.
Overall, this system has generated a 9% ROI and is 1243-982-87 (56%). This season, the system is 110-81-3 (58%), also a 9% ROI.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1479171″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Silent Sharp Unders” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20temperature%20is%20between%2034%20and%2087%20degrees%22%2C%22the%20visiting%20team’s%205%20Game%20recent%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2040%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%205%20Game%20recent%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2040%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%207.5%20and%2010%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20game%20number%20is%20between%206%20and%20162%22%2C%22the%20visitor%20team’s%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2046%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2046%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20o%2Fu%20change%20from%20open%20to%20close%20is%20between%20-1%20and%200%22%2C%22the%20over%2Funder%20%25%20is%20between%201%25%20and%2029%25%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$21,153″ record=”1243-982-87″ winpct=”56%”][/betlabsembed]
Pick: Under 9.5 (-104)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Miami Marlins” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Seattle Mariners” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png”][/teammatchup] |
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