After an exciting All-Star break, standard baseball is back with a full Friday slate.
I have one pick for Friday’s contests.
Let’s dive into my MLB NRFI, YRFI picks and model predictions for Friday.
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MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks and Predictions — 7/18
Yankees vs. Braves NRFI/YRFI Prediction
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”YRFI -102 (Play to -110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyy.png” awayname=”Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” homename=”Braves” homeslug=”atlanta-braves” date=”Friday, July 18″ time=”7:15 p.m. ET” network=”MASN” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet-mgm”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: Undecided (Max Fried) vs. Spencer Strider
I’m listing Max Fried as the Yankees’ starter since it’s his turn in the rotation. However, he’s officially day-to-day with a blister on his throwing hand and might not end up starting.
Doing my projections based on Fried, I’m still showing a slight value to the YRFI. That’s largely driven by Aaron Judge and Ronald Acuna Jr. — the two best hitters in baseball by wRC+ — both getting first inning at-bats.
Of course, a move to somebody other than Fried would be a fairly significant boost to the YRFI. That would mean significant CLV on this side of the bet, with a chance to arbitrage and lock in a profit later.
The third option — and possibly ideal — option is that Fried tries to push through an injury and is at reduced effectiveness.
Either way, I want to be ahead of the news with my bet.
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